re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis, the density of the minefields near the front was a much bigger problem for Ukraine than they or their western partners had anticipated. Not only on the disastrous first day of the Ukrainian offensive which produced all the pics of dead Bradleys, but for a long while afterwards, Ukraine made minimal progress.

The Russian fortification lines do not, themselves, present great difficulty to Ukraine. Ukraine has already broken through one line near Robotyne. A trench or a spike pyramid isn't as big of a problem as a mine, because they don't blow up Ukrainian vehicles and can be cleared.

Ukraine has also gotten much better at demining since the start of the offensive. What is working very well for them now is using thermal drones to map the mines right after dark. When Ukraine knows where the mines are, the problem becomes much more manageable.

But all the Russian lines of fortification don't mean anything if Russia lacks the ability to defend them.

As the Ukrainian offensive began, many military analysts thought that Russia would defend lightly and carefully above its fortified lines, and then defend those lines with great force.

But that isn't what's happened. Russia has fought very hard above those lines and is taking very significant losses, such as at Urozhaine.

Look at the geolocated artillery losses since the start of the offensive (as of August 16th):



Both sides are suffering significant attrition, but Russia's continual loss of artillery on the front during this offensive is gradually weakening their ability to resist.

Again, a trench means nothing unless it can be defended.