re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

That could be true but it only gets him so far. The prisoners are getting wary and he's running out of ethnic minorities. If he doesn't wrap this up quickly, the next mobilization will have to sweep up middle class Russians from Moscow and St Petersburg who have so far avoided service. That's a whole different proposition, which is why Putin has been trying to avoid it. But they're the only untapped pool of manpower he has left.

---

I hear you, and I'm sure there's considerable truth to what you wrote. But according to one source ( https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/incarceration-rates-by-country), Russia has (had?) 471,490 prisoners. If we assume, say, 10% are female and 20% are non-able-bodied males, that would mean over 330,000 available to ... redeem themselves by fighting for the glory of mother Russia (or however he might phrase it). And while the prisoners may well be getting wary, there's not much practical limit to how much pressure Putin can put on them: 'We'll torture you for a month and then execute you unless you go fight. If you go fight, at least you have a chance to live and get your old life back.'

And so if say 50,000 Russian prisoners have deployed so far, it's not hard to imagine that another 200,000 of them could be ... persuaded. Don't you think?