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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/13/23 at 7:29 pm to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
18092 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 7:29 pm to
quote:

US tells Ukraine it won’t send ATACMS. Sending them to Ukraine would dwindle US stockpiles and harm the US military’s readiness for future fights, US officials said


That's a good article, Stormy -- thanks for the link.

Some other interesting bits from the article:

quote:

One workaround being considered by Kyiv is to ask for Washington’s approval to buy ATACMS from an allied country that operates the weapon, using military financing from the United States, according to one of the people familiar with the discussions. The list of ATACMS users includes South Korea, Poland, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Qatar and Bahrain.


South Korea makes ATACMS under license, so maybe they can make some replacements for Poland.

quote:

One person close to the Ukrainian government said that Kyiv doesn’t anticipate any new weapons in the assistance package Austin will announce this week. The drawdowns from existing stocks and contracts for new weapons won’t include ATACMS or F-16 warplanes, but will focus on ammunition, munitions, air defense and spare parts.

Whatever the U.S. package — and other pledges by partner nations — Ukraine is looking for more secrecy when those governments announce that assistance.

Officials in Kyiv are growing concerned that some of the more detailed lists coming out of Washington and elsewhere could risk providing too much information to their Russian foes, who can prepare defenses or countermeasures if they know what they’ll be facing, according to one of the people.


That's really interesting. It's what Finland, Turkey, and some other nations have done from the start. People figure out some of what they send when it starts showing up in battlefield videos.

But I think that the US will still basically announce what we're sending, because I think that the US public expects the accountability. I think that HARM was the only thing that we sent without a specific announcement. But perhaps the British will send Storm Shadow missiles without an announcement, and Russia will find out when Kerch explodes.

And yes, the US won't be announcing any new systems this week. That would happen on the 24th, when Biden goes to Poland and meets with Zelensky on the anniversary of the invasion.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
773 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 9:23 pm to
Found this while chasing down confirmation of the Russian planes in Polish air space.

It's a CBC interview with a Canadian born medic who has been over there from close to the start of the war, most recently based in Soledar and Bahkmut.

Sober and realistic insights on many aspects of the war and the issues they face.

Youtube CBS - What a canadian medic has witnessed on the front lines
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
18092 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:31 pm to
Just an absolutely infuriating article in the Washington Post: LINK

quote:

As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears, U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders they face a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while weapons and aid from the United States and its allies are surging.

Despite promises to back Ukraine “as long as it takes,” Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America’s allies represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.


First of all, this is supposed to be a news article, not an opinion piece, and saying "Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear"? Unclear to whom? That's just poor journalism.

quote:

Yet the public show of unity belies underlying tensions over how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.

The frank discussions in Kyiv last month reflected an effort by the Biden administration to bring Ukraine’s goals in line with what the West can sustain as the war approaches its one-year mark. Getting Ukraine on the same page has not always been easy, according to people familiar with the discussions, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks.

For months, Ukraine has expended significant resources and troops defending Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region. American military analysts and planners have argued that it is unrealistic to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive to retake what the United States views as more critical territory.


To the extent that this is accurate reporting, it's a indication of just how out of touch so much functionaries are in the Biden administration.

Ukraine can't start its spring offensive until it gets all this new Western armor into theater and gets people trained to use and maintain it. That's probably not until late April at the earliest. So, Ukraine isn't supposed to defend anything until then? Does that even make sense?

And all the concern about whether or not Congress will authorize more money to Ukraine? First of all, it just means that the Biden administration will have to negotiate. Some Republicans are not in favor of more spending to Ukraine, but McConnell is, and the GOP chairmen of the House Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee are both very strongly pro-Ukraine. The rest of the GOP just needs more aid to Ukraine to be combined with some reasonable effort to control our southern border.

quote:

U.S. intelligence officials have concluded, however, that retaking the heavily fortified peninsula is beyond the capability of Ukraine’s army right now, according to officials familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.


Yeah, it's beyond their capability because you won't give Ukraine a dozen ATACMS. Hopefully, the Brits will make that irrelevant by giving Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles.
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