re: It’s ridiculous.. average nfl career is 3.3 years

Posted this in another thread, here’s where early entrants from LSU have gone since 2010:
- 1st round: 14
- 2nd round: 11
- 3rd round: 9
- 4th round: 5
- 5th round: 2
- 6th round: 1
- 7th round: 2
- Undrafted: 9
- Total: 53

So 47% have gone in the first two rounds and 64% of them have gone in the first three rounds.

Further, a lot of the guys who have gone late/UDFA have either been players with off the field issues (e.g. facing suspension/dismissal), players who were going to see less playing time if they stayed, or players with legit injury concerns who were just trying to get to a contract while they still could. I’d say that accounts for at least half of the late round picks or undrafted players based on my research yesterday. It’s hard to argue that anyone who falls into these categories would be better off waiting a year.

And that’s without accounting for factors like players’ personal situations, coaching changes, draft grades, etc. that impact their decisions regardless of the actual outcomes.

My point is that the perceived problem is kind of overstated. There have only been a handful of LSU players over the past decade that objectively made a mistake, in hindsight, by leaving early.