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Started By
Message
re: Dow futures down 500pts
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:46 am to wutangfinancial
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:46 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
So your take is that it’s a discounting mechanism for cash flows?
I believe at its core earnings and cash flow do matter.
As for the ponzi comment, I was just summarizing your inflow/outflow discussion with a hyperbolic summary - hence the laughing emoji.
1
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:47 am to slackster
We’ve only had a few weeks of outflows in equities over 2 decades. I’d tend to agree but there’s no way to unwind passive funds without creating the entire market. Don’t believe me? Why did the flash crash happen in 2015?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:52 am to Lsut81
I sold 60% of my stocks in March. I’m going to make out like a bandit when this is all done.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:02 pm to slackster
I just hate how people say that. I mean at it's core equities will go up as income increases which happens with demographic expansion. That can be done two ways - the birthrate increasing and opening up your markets to foreign investors. In general I'm with you that their will be a reversion to active, I just think it's going to be a bloodbath before that (no clue when/how/what etc...). We don't have the population growth to sustain this and we are actively undermining our private property laws and capital markets with our Ukraine policies. How much longer until foreign direct investment dries up?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:24 pm to Lsut81
I think it will drop another 3,000 to 5,000 points. Market correction time. As interest rates increase, bonds will begin to have higher rates and money will move to bonds.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:31 pm to FlyingTiger1955
Market has been correcting, it's not market correction time. Tech is in month 15 of a correction. When all is said and done this may be worse for tech than dot com. Some sticks have already eclipsed 90 percent losses from highs.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:33 pm to wutangfinancial
According to The Investment Company Institute, net equity ETF and MF fund flows are negative over the past 5 years - -$142B since May 2017. 
2021 was the only calendar year with net inflows during the period.
2021 was the only calendar year with net inflows during the period.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:42 pm to nugget
quote:
2, I believe, and we are most likely in the middle of the second.
Correct.
We probably are in a recession but we won't officially know until the numbers are released.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:52 pm to GhostofJackson
The market has another 10% to 15% to drop.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:57 pm to FlyingTiger1955
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:59 pm to FlyingTiger1955
quote:
The market has another 10% to 15% to drop.
Why these prices?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:00 pm to slackster
Which I don’t believe includes Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street passive retirement flows. I’ll have figure out what’s missing but just directionally that doesn’t make sense because of the reflexivity of the bull market since 2016. What am I missing here? Stock buybacks are another variable.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:03 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Which I don’t believe includes Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street passive retirement flows.
Maybe not, but I compared with Morningstar data that does have those numbers and it’s not too far off over smaller timeframes.
Morningstar gets really granular though and I was looking for broader equity numbers.
ETA-
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:05 pm to FlyingTiger1955
quote:
The market has another 10% to 15% to drop.
Why not 25% to 30%?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:06 pm to slackster
Kind of makes you wonder where people are putting their money? Cash seems like a crappy idea for anything longer than a short period of time.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:11 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
Cash seems like a crappy idea
Rising inflation is going to cause some folks to reprioritize what they own. A large number of people were living paycheck to paycheck before all this started.
I bet some good deals will be around in a few months.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:16 pm to sawtooth
My net worth has taken a pretty good hit this year so far. Glad I'm only 44 
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:18 pm to slackster
Minute 32 for a few minutes - Micheal Green
I'm pretty sure those are discretionary funds only when you're referencing it. Then you have stockbuybacks to account for. I'll try and find more hard data but I tend to believe this guy because he's the first to really explain publicly the changes in the underlying fundamentals of the market.
Think about it. The only time those flows would turn negative is if 1) national income went down and/or 2) more people are retiring than entering the labor force
I'm pretty sure those are discretionary funds only when you're referencing it. Then you have stockbuybacks to account for. I'll try and find more hard data but I tend to believe this guy because he's the first to really explain publicly the changes in the underlying fundamentals of the market.
Think about it. The only time those flows would turn negative is if 1) national income went down and/or 2) more people are retiring than entering the labor force
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:22 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
My net worth has taken a pretty good hit this year so far. Glad I'm only 44
I know it sounds a little weird, but 2022 could be a great time for new retirees (assuming they haven’t retired already). Your future returns are likely to be much better when you’re starting in a -16% or more market correction, so as long as you have a plan for your shorter term cash needs, the future is bright.
In other words, you don’t want to be retiring at the end of a substantial bull run, all else being equal.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 1:29 pm to sawtooth
quote:
I sold 60% of my stocks in March. I’m going to make out like a bandit when this is all done.
Potentially...but you are going to have a meaningful taxable event on whatever gains.
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