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Started By
Message
re: Dow futures down 500pts
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:23 am to CP3LSU25
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:23 am to CP3LSU25
quote:
I’ve fricking had it. I’m losing thousands by the second and social media influencers are traveling the world. I’ve gone mad. Nothing fricking makes any sense anymore.
Stop the bleeding. Sell, Mortimer!
0
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:26 am to bod312
quote:
The only issue is that the definition of a recession is based on a lagging indicator therefore you are truly in a recession before you have the confirmation.
Thus the word "lagging".
quote:
The bear market indicator is live though so you aren't in a bear market until you meet the definition.
Nasdaq is in a bear. It's 27% down.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:26 am to GhostofJackson
quote:
I'm not worried about my 401k. That will recover. I'm worried about my personal stock choices as I fully expect them never to recover. Some of these stocks will go to pennies and then go bankrupt
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:29 am to Triple Bogey
quote:
Earnings don't matter in a market like this. I know we haven't hit the levels yet, but we are in a bear market. If your company blows out earnings, your stock will be up 2-3% and then sell off the next day back to even. If you report inline the stock will be down 5% and if you miss you'll be down 10-20%.
Yeah beating earnings is good for about a day and missing or lowing guidance is good for weeks or more now it seems.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:40 am to CP3LSU25
quote:
Some of these stocks will go to pennies and then go bankrupt
Sounds like someone chose some pitiful stocks to invest in.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:49 am to bod312
I completely understand the lagging difficulty of recession confirmation. I basically expect a recession, but I believe it’s probably a second half 2022 to 2023 problem.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 10:50 am to CP3LSU25
quote:
I'm worried about my personal stock choices as I fully expect them never to recover. Some of these stocks will go to pennies and then go bankrupt
Lots of people been gambling last few years. Valuations matter
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:14 am to Lsut81
quote:Maybe so. S&P has a bit to give up yet. Perhaps another 5% to 3800?
Time to buy on the way down
We're 50% cash right now. Mostly keeping the powder dry.
Put a toe in today with a few fractional buys though; e.g., MA, EXPE, along with lowering cost-basis in some positions.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:20 am to CP3LSU25
I’ve fricking had it. I’m losing thousands by the second and social media influencers are traveling the world. I’ve gone mad. Nothing fricking makes any sense anymore.
--
Don't have to sell it all. I'm selling some.
--
Don't have to sell it all. I'm selling some.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:24 am to ItzMe1972
I bought some TTD earlier at $45.33 for a hopeful quick trade. This was bought in my frick around find out play account.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:24 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Lots of people been gambling last few years. Valuations matter
Valuations do not matter when 90% of the capital flows into equities are price insensitive.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:25 am to Jjdoc
quote:
S&P is almost to it.. It's down 101 today. Another day like today reaches 20% Split hairs all you want.
We’ll if getting close is all that matters, Trump presided over 2 bear markets.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:27 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Valuations do not matter when 90% of the capital flows into equities are price insensitive.
Do you mean like employer sponsored retirement plans and funds with mandates?
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:30 am to TDTOM
You’re over the radar, baw
ETA: how many of you look at financial statements and metrics to make investment decisions and how much of your total portfolio is discretionary?
ETA: how many of you look at financial statements and metrics to make investment decisions and how much of your total portfolio is discretionary?
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:33 am to TDTOM
quote:
Do you mean like employer sponsored retirement plans?
I am assuming he means that the majority of money entering the market is through passive index funds. Which I believe is around 50% of money held in funds.
The performance of the NASDAQ vs the S&P and Dow shows that people are exiting the more risky positions first.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:35 am to UltimaParadox
Maybe, but most funds are inefficient by design.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:38 am to UltimaParadox
I think it’s higher than 50 and it’s putting active funds out of business. We’re basically at an inflection point where it will go to 100% passive and then to $0 without a massive regulatory change. It’s happened a few times before and always happens when stock market returns become a symbol of national pride.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:39 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
am assuming he means that the majority of money entering the market is through passive index funds.
Passive or active is not really as big a deal for his take - both approaches are bound by prospectus to invest money. An active equity fund isn’t going to sit on 50% cash.
Ultimately his belief is basically that the market is a Ponzi scheme.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:40 am to slackster
So your take is that it’s a discounting mechanism for cash flows? 
I’ve never once called it a ponzi
I’ve never once called it a ponzi
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 11:41 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:43 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
We’re basically at an inflection point where it will go to 100% passive and then to $0 without a massive regulatory change.
I am of the belief active could/should outperform as passive gets more popular. The predictability that passive beings should swing the pendulum back to active. If there is no longer a random walk, active should take advantage.
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