- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:42 am to Jjdoc
quote:
remember you saying that everything was baked into the announcement... Remember?
It was, and then Powell took .75% off the table and rates ballooned once people digested it. The initial announcement didn’t cause much of a blip at all - .50 was baked in. Are you trying to suggest otherwise?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:44 am to Jjdoc
quote:
In fact, stating facts is not a bad thing. They are just details. Here is one for you. WE ARE IN A RECESSION AND BEAR MARKET.
Says stating facts is a good thing.
Proceeds to sell speculation as fact in the same paragraph.
Peak jjdoc.
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 8:44 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:52 am to slackster
Sure if you believe that it was always possible to invest in an index and the index itself never changed
Treasuries outperform stock in the long run but you couldn't see that if you looked at an index could you?
Treasuries outperform stock in the long run but you couldn't see that if you looked at an index could you?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:53 am to slackster
quote:
Proceeds to sell speculation as fact in the same paragraph.
You are doing the same thing, FYI. Unless you are talking about flows it's all just narrative to make us feel like we know what we are doing.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:56 am to nugget
We could be.
I need to see how these rate increases are going to impact inflation. If we see some positive impact which to me would be a tempering of inflation then I get a bit more comfortable .
Still too much unknown though
I need to see how these rate increases are going to impact inflation. If we see some positive impact which to me would be a tempering of inflation then I get a bit more comfortable .
Still too much unknown though
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:56 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
You are doing the same thing, FYI.
I’m not sure where I’ve speculated in this thread. I mentioned GDP forecasts, but I assume a forecast is understood to NOT be factual.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:56 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
I need to see how these rate increases are going to impact inflation. If we see some positive impact which to me would be a tempering of inflation then I get a bit more comfortable.
Pack a lunch.
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 8:57 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 8:59 am to bod312
quote:
My main point would be what constructive discourse has any of the posters in this thread provided yet?
You provided absolutely zero discourse. You just criticized others. Here is some discourse, the metrics you are using are antiquated. We can recognize we are in the middle of a bear market now long before people like you officially announce it, which is usually weeks or months after it starts.
If you want reasons/support you should already know it, but since you are only in a criticize mode without supporting your position I’ll provide it. Commodities continue to remain at high levels, inflation is through the roof and much higher than what is being reported, GDP decreased in the first quarter, China is expecting terrible jobs numbers, rising fed funds rates, NASDAQ was down 13.3% in April (worst since 2008), NASDAQ is down 23% since November 2021, earnings have been abysmal this quarter (expected to continue as more are reporting this week), Russian war is expected to continue pressure on commodities, China Covid-19 is expected to be another inflation driver on the supply side, lending rates continue to climb and from technical side Apple (150) and Microsoft (270) look to be close to breaking key numbers that are going to further accelerate sell off in the S&P 500 (Microsoft broke below this morning).
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 9:05 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:02 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Treasuries outperform stock in the long run but you couldn't see that if you looked at an index could you?
I know they did from 2000-2020, but not sure about other timeframes. Can you enlighten us?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:04 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
earnings have been abysmal this quarter
Forecasts haven’t been all that positive, but earnings have beaten on average this quarter.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:10 am to slackster
quote:
The initial announcement didn’t cause much of a blip at all - .50 was baked in. Are you trying to suggest otherwise?
I am as the results show over the last 3 days.
Raising the rates ALWAYS lowers the real GDP! Never in history has it been ANY other way.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:11 am to slackster
quote:
Says stating facts is a good thing.
Proceeds to sell speculation as fact in the same paragraph.
Again... Raising rate has always resulted in a lowering of the real GDP.. Always.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:16 am to Jjdoc
quote:
Again... Raising rate has always resulted in a lowering of the real GDP.. Always.
So you’re calling for a negative Q2 GDP?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:17 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
It took 10 years to regain ATHs after Stagflation and it took almost 20 after the Tech boom.
The buy every dip strategy will 100% blow your account up in the long run.
You realize if you bought the dip, then you’d be in the very much in the positive by the time ATHs got back to where they were?
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:18 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
You provided absolutely zero discourse. You just criticized others. Here is some discourse, the metrics you are using are antiquated. We can recognize we are in the middle of a bear market now long before people like you officially announce it, which is usually weeks or months after it starts.
So please enlighten me what should the new definition of a bear market be. A bear market can and is identified and labeled in real time but we have not had a large enough decline to trigger. You might have a point if you were talking about recessions because it is based on quarterly results which obviously means it isn't being reported except every 3 months is delayed even beyond the end of the quarter.
My constructive point was trying to steward us into a fruitful conversation. Having someone yell about facts and then completely not provide any factual information really stood out beyond everyone else just saying hey we have a long way to go until we reach the bottom.
Your 2nd paragraph is way better than what anyone else has provided and now what would you do with that information? Even if I know there is further to fall, what would you recommend? Do you recommend selling now? If you are selling, what are you buying or are you staying in cash? What would you use as your marker to jump back in?
Also curious as to what earnings have truly been abysmal? Most things I have seen showed good earnings but the market has been selling off the future guidance these companies are providing.
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 9:24 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:19 am to slackster
quote:
Forecasts haven’t been all that positive, but earnings have beaten on average this quarter.
quote:
Also curious as to what earnings have truly been abysmal?
Earnings and guidance, but here goes some:
Google missed, Amazon missed, Shopify missed, Twitter missed, YUM Brands missed, SNAP missed, Pfizer missed, Royal Caribbean missed, Biogen missed, Boeing missed, Markel missed, Las Vegas Sands missed, Netflix missed, Harley Davidson missed, GE missed on the bottom, JP Morgan missed in the top, US Steel missed.
Those are big hitters across a wide range of the market that missed.
ETA: Retailers like Walmart and Target also missed. The list of missed is way longer than anyone expected.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 7:38 am
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:23 am to bod312
quote:
Even if I know there is further to fall, what would you recommend? Do you recommend selling now? If you are selling, what are you buying or are you staying in cash? What would you use as your marker to jump back in?
What are you recommending since you think things are great? I moved in I bonds in January. I am currently DCAing into some techs and Bitcoin.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:27 am to slackster
quote:
Forecasts haven’t been all that positive, but earnings have beaten on average this quarter.
You totally ignored everything he just stated..
On March 7th, the Nasdaq entered a bear market and continues to be so.
On May 3rd, the S & P entered and completed phase 1 of bear market. With last week and today, it's more than confirmed that it will soon be "defined" as a bear market. It's 16% down from it's highs.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 9:29 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Actually we aren’t in a generally defined recession. Not sure if the exact number of quarters but we’d need to see several quarters of declining gdp and we haven’t seen that.
Technically true, but the definition is backward looking, so we are likely living in the number that will print to official call it. That’s close enough for me.
But forget all that. We are going from record easing to record tightening and that is what will pop this asset bubble the fed created.
Page 2 of 9
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News