re: Dow futures down 500pts

quote:

---

What are you recommending since you think things are great? I moved in I bonds in January. I am currently DCAing into some techs and Bitcoin.

---

FYI, I never said things were great. I even kept hinting at "yet" because we aren't in a bear market or a recession but in my opinion we likely will before things get better. I had 2 issues sparking my post, the first saying we are already in a bear market and recession (you lose credibility IMO when its clear we are not, yet). The second is what is the purpose of the replies? Stoking fear without any further elaboration or discussion doesn't do much good for anyone.

As far as my recommendation, I am of the camp that trying to time the market is futile. Many professionals are paid millions a year to beat the market and their success rate is truly abysmal. I will stay invested and continue to do my normal periodic investments. Some things make sense and buying ibonds within the last 6 months and at least in the near future is probably prudent but isn't going to make or break a portfolio. I am not so sure I would sell stocks to go do that but if I had dry powder/excess emergency fund then sure.

You said you moved to ibonds, you sold your equities and moved it into ibonds? What is your trigger to sell your ibonds and buy back into equities (is it ibond rate based or market based)?

I see you are buying bitcoin but are really down on equities, do you not share the same concern for bitcoin? What will happen to bitcoin if we go into a recession?

One more thing to point out, my post and your reply has moved this conversation a lot more than just saying "look out below" or "long ways to go".

Bitcoin and the major indices have been pretty highly correlated YTD.

quote:

---

As far as my recommendation, I am of the camp that trying to time the market is futile.

---

I don’t think it is futile, but it is futile for me. I continue to DCA retirement accounts in broad small cap funds. People a lot better than me at this do it all the time.

quote:

---

You said you moved to ibonds, you sold your equities and moved it into ibonds? What is your trigger to sell your ibonds and buy back into equities (is it ibond rate based or market based)?

---

Did not sell, just moved into them from cash. In late October I moved out of Ethereum to go to about 20% cash on hand for purchases (I just moved out of commodities/Exxon/Oxy in late April after they hit long term cap gains status to get back to 20% cash because there are going to be opportunities in this market). I am not seeing anything currently to make me move away from I bonds, which is both protective/defensive and now rate based. I did not move my entire portfolio into I bonds, that’s ridiculous.

So I assume that is a yes?

It’s a pretty simple question - will Q2 GDP be negative?

The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpant

Look at the "The Trillion Dollar Question: Is this Repeatable?

"If you bought on market declines consistently between 1929 and 1970 you would have gone bankrupt 3 times. A passive index realized -86% peak to trough decline in the 1930s and two decades of lost performance. Treasury bonds lost -25% unleveraged through the 1970s and -51% volatility adjusted to Equities."

I can't find his research on how Treasuries outperform stocks for some reason but he addresses what I was referring to earlier. Basically the index isn't a reflection of the broader stock market. Individual equities over the long-run go bankrupt whereas the government does not. That's basically what he proofs out and then he shows how we can be tricked by the indexation of both asset classes.

ETA: Keep in mind that as it sits now after all of the cash builds in the S&P, QQQ etc...something like 1/3 of those companies are zombies already so it shouldn't be shocking to anybody. But it's out of sight out of mind because of recency bias.

quote:

---

These are not speculative definitions. A recession is well defined. A bear market is well defined. Saying we’re in either before either happen is a forecast.

---

The only issue is that the definition of a recession is based on a lagging indicator therefore you are truly in a recession before you have the confirmation. The bear market indicator is live though so you aren't in a bear market until you meet the definition.

There was also speculation that these definitions are old and outdated but none of the posters have provided possible replacement definitions. I would be curious as to how they want to define a bear market and recession.

quote:

---

frick the stock market and frick anyone who voted Biden

---

. Now we have a voice of reason.

Earnings haven't mattered ever, FYI. Just capital flows.

I’ve fricking had it. I’m losing thousands by the second and social media influencers are traveling the world. I’ve gone mad. Nothing fricking makes any sense anymore.

quote:

---

Down 20% is a bear market.

---

Nas is there...

S&P is almost to it.. It's down 101 today. Another day like today reaches 20% Split hairs all you want.

quote:

---

A recession is well defined.

---

I quoted you exact WHO defines its and WHAT they use to define it. They are the ones to "officially" announce it.

quote:

---

Saying we’re in either before either happen is a forecast.

---

LOL!!! ok.

quote:

---

It is unlikely that we’re going to see negative real GDP in Q2 - the one we’re currently in.

---

Doesn't have to. As I pointed out, the body that defines it ...

quote:

---

As for a bear market, you’re looking for 3837.25 on the S&P 500. We may get there just with the ebbs and flows of the market in general, much less the surrounding macro environment, but historically only about 30% of -10% corrections turn into -20% bear markets in the S&P 500.

---