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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 9/18/14 at 4:23 pm to Ole War Skule
Posted on 9/18/14 at 4:23 pm to Ole War Skule
My thoughts are in (...) below
back in UGAZ at 14.67 (long natural gas is good in my estimation)
though I'm starting to think if all I'm doing is playing price fluctuations, I'd be better off buying long term puts or calls on UNG.(the danger is being 100% correct, but being 100% correct after the options expire. Having said that, this is exactly how I play the equities on this trade) I'm just now starting to understand the 'contango' issue with these ETFs and looks like I'm giving the dealer juice every month I stay long on this....comments? (Backwardation and contango apply to commodity prices. The ETN and ETF's buy futures. Most generally, there are exceptions. In addition to this, one should understand what exactly the ETF/ETN owns, and if it is futures, exactly when they roll to the next months contracts. There are all different scenarios here. Near months. Three months out. This is why I rarely buy the security, but the derivatives (options) on these)
ETA: but though Fidelity option commissions seem in line with other discount brokers (7.95+.75/contract), I'm getting reamed on low cost options. On my little UNG trade I paid a total of about $160 for buying and selling 100 contracts worth only 1k-2k ...that sure won't work either. (call them up and ask for better commissions. the meek might inherit something, but not with respect to natural gas and trading)
back in UGAZ at 14.67 (long natural gas is good in my estimation)
though I'm starting to think if all I'm doing is playing price fluctuations, I'd be better off buying long term puts or calls on UNG.(the danger is being 100% correct, but being 100% correct after the options expire. Having said that, this is exactly how I play the equities on this trade) I'm just now starting to understand the 'contango' issue with these ETFs and looks like I'm giving the dealer juice every month I stay long on this....comments? (Backwardation and contango apply to commodity prices. The ETN and ETF's buy futures. Most generally, there are exceptions. In addition to this, one should understand what exactly the ETF/ETN owns, and if it is futures, exactly when they roll to the next months contracts. There are all different scenarios here. Near months. Three months out. This is why I rarely buy the security, but the derivatives (options) on these)
ETA: but though Fidelity option commissions seem in line with other discount brokers (7.95+.75/contract), I'm getting reamed on low cost options. On my little UNG trade I paid a total of about $160 for buying and selling 100 contracts worth only 1k-2k ...that sure won't work either. (call them up and ask for better commissions. the meek might inherit something, but not with respect to natural gas and trading)
0
Posted on 9/18/14 at 4:54 pm to Ole War Skule
You're going to pay similar juice to any option writer on longer dates puts or calls. Pick your poison.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 7:21 pm to L S Usetheforce
Force, what do you think the next week or so brings us? Are you expecting further bearish movement after this injection into next week?
I was reading somewhere that expects some pretty high injections over the next few weeks (90-100 bcf). I know you've been buying and selling these short term fluctuations, as have I, just trying to plan my next move. I'm completely out as of right now.
I was reading somewhere that expects some pretty high injections over the next few weeks (90-100 bcf). I know you've been buying and selling these short term fluctuations, as have I, just trying to plan my next move. I'm completely out as of right now.
Posted on 9/19/14 at 8:00 am to rintintin
I kept 600 shares of ugaz @ 13.39
I have 300 shares of kold @ 39.42
I buy ugaz @ a price trigger of 13.49....1000 shares and have a sell price @15.62 on a 1000.
I have a sell on kold @57....
I have a feeling kold will hit 56-57 one more time before injection season ends. Therefore, I do not advise going into ugaz @14.50, more money can be made and it increases your risk to buy and sell more.
I think 90s injections will become a mainstay for Sept/Oct....
My main goal is to have about 25k available to buy up ugaz in the 12s if kold hits 57.
I have 300 shares of kold @ 39.42
I buy ugaz @ a price trigger of 13.49....1000 shares and have a sell price @15.62 on a 1000.
I have a sell on kold @57....
I have a feeling kold will hit 56-57 one more time before injection season ends. Therefore, I do not advise going into ugaz @14.50, more money can be made and it increases your risk to buy and sell more.
I think 90s injections will become a mainstay for Sept/Oct....
My main goal is to have about 25k available to buy up ugaz in the 12s if kold hits 57.
This post was edited on 9/19/14 at 8:03 am
Posted on 9/19/14 at 8:12 am to L S Usetheforce
I was feeling the same. I have a buy order on Ugaz under 14. If it dips their again I'm going in big.
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:04 am to rintintin
I bought UNG today at right around $21.00.
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:06 am to rintintin
quote:It's there....down almost 5% this morning.
I have a buy order on Ugaz under 14. If it dips their again I'm going in big.
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:08 am to LSURussian
Be patient....
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:12 am to Iowa Golfer
Just my 2 cents, but I think we are headed lower the next week or two and possibly through the end of October, barring some sort of crazy, early winter. I think the supply concerns are all but dead... we may see inventories break 3,500 by the end of Oct.
This post was edited on 9/19/14 at 10:13 am
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:13 am to L S Usetheforce
quote:For what?
Be patient....
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:17 am to LSURussian
Posted on 9/19/14 at 10:20 am to sneakytiger
I prayed for patience and told God he'd better hurry....
Posted on 9/19/14 at 11:24 am to LSURussian
I'm looking more for mid 13's.
Posted on 9/19/14 at 5:10 pm to Ole War Skule
Well Ole War, UNG 21.50 puts closed out at .58 today. I apologize. I should have told you stay on another day.
I rarely look back but I was curious before dinner this evening.
On to the next battle.
I rarely look back but I was curious before dinner this evening.
On to the next battle.
Posted on 9/20/14 at 6:57 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Well Ole War, UNG 21.50 puts closed out at .58 today. I apologize. I should have told you stay on another day.
don't give it a 2nd thought, I know you and Force are really good, but no one calls em right every time to the penny. I did lower my cost by 5% points or so by getting out and back in Wed/Thu and picked up a nice little 'treat' on the options I went in and out on...all is well
I'm really just learning options, so this was a good no cost exercise for me.
but more importantly, good luck with Pitt this morning!
Posted on 9/20/14 at 7:15 am to Ole War Skule
Thanks. Good luck to you today also. I keep up on LSU football a little bit, but rarely venture on the rant.
Last time we played LSU I really enjoyed the fans that understood football.
Last time we played LSU I really enjoyed the fans that understood football.
Posted on 9/22/14 at 6:44 am to Iowa Golfer
anyone have strong feelings on movement this week?
Posted on 9/22/14 at 10:39 am to Ole War Skule
Buy below 13.50 just like last week
Posted on 9/22/14 at 11:26 am to L S Usetheforce
It's below 13.50
Posted on 9/22/14 at 11:32 am to eng08
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