re: BOIL has become predictable

The pipeline explosion is the wild card. The injection report needs to mitigate and trump that.

Pipelines are important. I haven't forgotten about how I didn't factor that in last spring/summer.

I could insert some political commentary here, but I think most can imagine where I would go with that, so I'll leave it as is.

Market is closed except futures which are ticking up a smidge. Cash was actually down at HH yesterday. It will be the next piece of the puzzle when HH reports cash transaction for today.

The explosion was yesterday, and priced in yesterday. The questions are cash at HH for today, and tomorrow's injection report and whether it will move UNG down to $21.50 or lower. I'm assuming you followed me in at $21.50 9/20 UNG puts? You paid a dime? No big deal, the short term stuff is just little chunks of money, or little losses serving as filler for the longer term plays.

You have options with a ton of potential based n the huge injection they are expecting. Your commission was probably $5.99 plus X per contract.

UNG is going to have a swing one way or another at 9:30 EST tomorrow. Be ready if it goes the wrong way. One of two things. 9:30 is amateur hour. Either take a gain, or dump, but do it by 10. If you sit, you'll need to check every morning at open, and right before closing bell when the larger players are, and generally the option's writers are trying not to keep open positions overnight. You have until 9/19, which I think is the last trading day.

So tonight the futures markets are being traded, and Oct NG (which is now down a penny since this afternoon's close), will be traded overseas, and by domestic companies with overnight desks. Also by guys getting off of work and gambling. Make no mistake, if some on here think what I do is gambling, then it is serious gambling what the guys off of work are doing right now.

Eventually there should be some sort of trend. There almost always is on Weds night or early, early Thursday AM. I think the report gets leaked. It sure seems that way. Watch for that. It isn't every time, but it is a lot. And I mean a lot.

Cash was up .12 to $3.97 for today's transaction at HH. Light volume tonight, and futures are down between .02 and .026.

Puts have doubled.

And I had a partial fill at 22. I probably left money on the table, but just wanted a quick in and out.

I may have left money on the table and don't care...doubled mine

thanks!

and also got out of UGAZ yesterday before it dropped today, so I'm counting that missed loss as a gain

I have nothing open for now

ETA: wow, commissions were hell on that trade..I'm at Fidelity and assume their rates aren't the best
$7.95 per trade, plus
$0.75 per contract
I guess the problem was the low value of the contracts (.11 and .22), so the .75/contract is a killer...is this normal or excessively high?

Use the Force - Sorry to make you repeat yourself. I have an open order for UNG at $20, but am considering raising my price. Do you think I pull the trigger now, or play a waiting game until last part of the month?

I think your criteria was BOIL at 33-44? IIRC?

back in UGAZ at 14.67

though I'm starting to think if all I'm doing is playing price fluctuations, I'd be better off buying long term puts or calls on UNG. I'm just now starting to understand the 'contango' issue with these ETFs and looks like I'm giving the dealer juice every month I stay long on this....comments?

ETA: but though Fidelity option commissions seem in line with other discount brokers (7.95+.75/contract), I'm getting reamed on low cost options. On my little UNG trade I paid a total of about $160 for buying and selling 100 contracts worth only 1k-2k ...that sure won't work either.