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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 9/13/14 at 7:11 am to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 7:11 am to
Cash was down sharply at Henry Hub Friday.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22763 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 7:32 am to
Ugaz dropped to 13.31.....i bought another 1000 shares... Up to 3000 @ 13.46.....I will sell half again at 15.50 if this pattern keeps up.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/15/14 at 8:54 am to
quote:

Ugaz dropped to 13.31.....i bought another 1000 shares... Up to 3000 @ 13.46.....I will sell half again at 15.50 if this pattern keeps up.



nice move this morning, but seems to have stalled at 14.7ish.

stay in or grab the 7% profit before it falls back to 13s?
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22763 posts
Posted on 9/15/14 at 9:48 am to
stay.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 7:29 am to
Projections for Thursday are 90-94. Pretty large for this time of year.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37715 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 7:34 am to
SELL SELL SELL SELL?
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16178 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 8:49 am to
BUY BUY BUY after Thursdays report IMO.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 1:04 pm to
UGAZ: I just put in a very tight (1%) trailing stop at 15.5....time to take something off the table and breathe

anyone else doing anything?
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12357 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

very tight (1%) trailing stop


Good idea IMO. Honestly, I was very surprised when I just checked it after buying in on Friday. 12% is hard to ignore on something this volatile and I'll probably go the trailing stop route as well.
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12357 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

You should be good on this trade


And apparently very quickly.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22763 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 1:48 pm to
I just sold 1000 shares @ 15.60......16% clip.....I was tied long to KOLD for awhile but I've made almost 8 grand in two weeks just chipping away buying on what I've seen become the pattern over this past month and a half.....

I kept 2000 @ 13.50 in UGAZ.....I'll buy more again if it fails below 14....

This thread has good karma guys.........keep making money
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
37715 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 2:01 pm to
I can't watch this everyday like you guys can. Since you're buying at under $14 I'm assuming you like this stock over the long term? I'm up about $800 bucks but don't really want to start day trading.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

I just sold 1000 shares @ 15.60..


Is there a reason you wouldn't do a trailing % stop and let it have a chance to go a little higher?

I think I'll go ahead and sell at market if it doesn't reach my 1% stop by the end of the day...this thing does tend to move in after hours and I wonder if I could get hammered with a big gap down during that time..

ideas?

ETA: never mind, sold at 15.55....will see how things start moving after hours
This post was edited on 9/16/14 at 2:56 pm
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22763 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

% stop and let it have a chance to go a little highe


yes....I'm perfectly happy taking 16% off a a trade like this, the extra 1% is not valuable enough to me to miss on profit.

In addition I still have a considerable stake in the stock so essentially I'm just taking money.....
This post was edited on 9/16/14 at 3:18 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 4:39 pm to
I'm long. One could take long profit, and reenter long after Thursday's report. That's precisely what some are describing.

My preference would be to buy puts, and then sell puts at a gain on Thursday and buy back long calls. Less capital tied up for the Thursday injection report short term trade described on here.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 9/16/14 at 10:50 pm to
Sept UNG puts expire Friday. 20/21 puts are fetching between .06 & .15. If they inject 90-94 how isn't this a no brainer? If they don't inject what they are projecting you really don't lose much.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/17/14 at 6:07 am to
quote:

Sept UNG puts expire Friday. 20/21 puts are fetching between .06 & .15. If they inject 90-94 how isn't this a no brainer? If they don't inject what they are projecting you really don't lose much.


I'm still trying to learn the nat gas market and don't think I'm following you. Do you mind explaining a little more?

Are you saying you're going to buy the puts because if the projected 90-94 injection takes place, that's a large number and will push prices down again?

ETA: is the 90-94 number your estimate, general consensus, or some other source?
This post was edited on 9/17/14 at 6:36 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 9/17/14 at 8:33 am to
LINK

Yes, I think if this is the injection, this is huge for September and the price will show significant decline. I'm buying puts and hopefully selling them on Thursday after the reports release. Almost immediately as the market always over reacts. At the same time I will load up on Jan/Feb $4.5 and possibly finance by selling Jan/Feb $5.

It's usually about a 65-70% hit based on the link I gave. Consistency always outperforms occasional brilliance.

Keep in mind it appears based on price behavior prior to EIA release, someone is leaking the report.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 9/17/14 at 10:53 am to
What strike price are you buying at? 20's seem risky with expy so close.
Posted by eng08
Member since Jan 2013
5997 posts
Posted on 9/17/14 at 11:21 am to
I think he's counting on Thursdays report release to jump them then unload it immediately.
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