BreakawayZou83

It’s a conundrum for the SEC. Because on the one hand, frick Notre Dame - and working with the B1G, the two conferences could squeeze Notre Dame out and push them to join the B1G. But then on the other hand, watching the B1G and Notre Dame squabble is a win-win for the SEC.

Once the B1G and SEC raid the ACC and take its best programs, then we might finally see Notre Dame forced to join the B1G. It wouldn't shock me if the B1G and SEC eventually move to 10 conference games - assuming they both round out at 18-20 programs. That would severely limit the interest in any of those B1G or SEC schools adding Notre Dame to the non-conference schedule. Even at nine conference games, a lot of these programs have non-conference annual rivalries and won't be looking to add a 10th/11th game against a heavy-hitting program.

So at that point, the only "power" conference left for Notre Dame to schedule with will be the Big 12, and Notre Dame would view most of those programs as beneath them. And I can't imagine that NBC would continue to shell out big bucks to Notre Dame if their schedule consists of UCF, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Houston.

If I was betting on this, I'd wager that Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia announce that they are leaving the ACC this summer for the B1G/SEC. If a Notre Dame to the B1G doesn't quickly follow, then maybe Notre Dame will go down with the ship and stay independent regardless of the cost.

Not a scientific metric, but just by using ESPN's Power Index:

Average SEC team ranking: 23
Median SEC team ranking: 19.5
Average SEC team ranking for bottom half of conference: 34
Lowest SEC team ranking: 49 (Mississippi State)


Average B1G team ranking: 40
Median B1G team ranking: 38
Average B1G team ranking for bottom half of conference: 65
Lowest B1G team ranking: 86 (Purdue)

B1G teams below SEC's lowest ranking team: 8

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Lots of Big 10 games in the worst category

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Biggest difference I noticed between the B1G and SEC after going through that data was that the B1G only seemed to put up big ratings if the game involved Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon. The SEC seemed like they could throw any ol' conference match-up on ABC and 4+ million people would watch it.

The SEC dominated the ratings. But the raw ratings don't tell you much beyond which programs were: 1) highly ranked; 2) played on ABC; and 3) played in the best time slots. So here's a further breakdown:

Source for all data.

A few notes:

1. Week 1 had absurd ratings that were over 50% higher across the top games than the average for the rest of the season, and it grossly inflated viewership numbers for those teams. Fans were hungry for the return of college football, and everyone's national championship dreams were alive and well. You will see below that the ratings from this week stick out like a sore thumb.

2. Nobody is tuning in to watch the bottom 75% of the B1G.

3. Nobody is tuning in to watch the Big 12, period.

4. The SEC dominated the ratings.

5. The YouTube TV-Disney dispute affected viewership numbers for Week 11 (estimated 15-35% viewership loss).

6. The B1G seems to have realized it was a losing battle to put its top game agains the SEC's so they put their best game at noon every single week.

Now onto some numbers (in millions):

1. Top Performing Games on network early slot:

1. Texas-Ohio State 16.62 (Week 1 monster)
2. Penn State-Ohio State 7.19
3. Alabama-Missouri 6.99
4. Ole Miss-Oklahoma 6.55
5. Indiana-Penn State 6.03

2. Top Performing Games on network afternoon slot:

1. Georgia-Tennessee 12.58
2. Alabama-Florida State 10.66 (Week 1 monster)
3. Oklahoma-Alabama 10.48
4. Ole Miss-Georgia 9.79
5. Oklahoma-Texas 8.73

3. Top Performing Games on network night slot:

1. Notre Dame-Miami 10.8 (Week 1 monster)
2. LSU-Clemson 10.45 (Week 1 monster)
3. Texas-Georgia 10.43
4. Alabama-Georgia 10.42
5. Michigan-Oklahoma 9.67

4. Top Performing Games on ESPN early slot:

1. Clemson-Georgia Tech 4.76
2. Iowa-Kansas State 4.47 (Week 1 monster)
3. South Carolina-Texas A&M 4.28
4. Syracuse-Clemson 3.39
5. Georgia-Mississippi State 2.32

5. Top Performing Games on ESPN afternoon slot:

1. Virginia Tech-South Carolina 5.43 (Week 1 monster)
2. Texas-Florida 3.98
3. Missouri-Vanderbilt 3.07
4. Auburn-Texas A&M 2.47
5. Notre Dame-Boston College 1.73

6. Top Performing Games on ESPN night slot:

1. TCU-North Carolina 6.07 (Week 1 monster)
2. Florida State-Virginia 4.39
3. Colorado-Houston 2.94
4. Kentucky-Texas 2.64
5. Florida-Texas A&M 2.62

7. Top Performing Games on ESPN2 all slots:

1. Missouri-Kansas 1.83
2. Arizona State-Colorado 1.11
3. Iowa State-Cincinnati 1.11
4. South Florida-North Texas 1.1
5. Syracuse-Clemson 1.06

8. Worst Performing Games on network early slot:

1. Army-Air Force 1.03
2. Navy-Air Force 1.38
3. Arkansas-Memphis 2.11
4. Syracuse-Tennessee 2.59
5. UCLA-Indiana 3.02

9. Worst Performing Games on network afternoon slot:

1. UCF-Texas Tech 1.4
2. Minnesota-Iowa 1.6
3. Syracuse-Notre Dame 1.89
4. Maryland-Wisconsin 2.0
5. Nevada-Penn State 2.24

10. Worst Performing Games on network night slot:

1. Washington State-Oregon State .82
2. Washington-UCLA 1.62
3. Washington-Washington State 1.65
4. Northwestern-USC 1.91
5. BYU-Utah 1.97

Not worth doing the worst performing ESPN games - it's just a list of bad G5 games.

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Why not target the Miami, FL market and bring in the Hurricanes right ? Location Location Location.

Also with their success and in the 80s, late 90s and early 2000s ?

Demographics Demographics Demographics

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We're not buying a house. And cable boxes don't matter nearly as much as they did 15 years ago. The biggest factors now are: (1) generating compelling match-ups that will drive viewership; (2) generating paid app subscribers. How many must-see games has Miami generated in the past 20 years? And how many Miami fans/neutral fans will be added to the ESPN subscriber pool if they join the SEC? I'd wager that Mississippi State adds about the same number, despite being the smallest SEC program in rural Mississippi.

Clemson in the SEC immediately adds compelling match-ups against South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn. Those games will all generate huge viewership most seasons. They're all at least somewhat established, regional games that the fanbases will want to watch. Same can be said for Florida State. What does Miami add on that front? A quarter-filled professional football stadium 45 minutes from campus? Their own fans don't care, even if they are showing signs of life in recent seasons. How many of them are going to pay for an SEC app to watch Miami football if (and when) we inevitably transition to that. Outside of Florida, does any SEC fanbase really give a shite about playing Miami?

At least North Carolina taps a truly new market and a passionate basketball fanbase. I'm not convinced that adding Miami really adds much from a market perspective when the SEC is already home to the Florida Gators. And unlike Miami, UNC is a school that resembles the majority of the SEC (public flagship in a charming college town with its own on-campus football stadium).

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I absolutely do believe the SEC will expand with ACC schools at some point. I absolutely so not believe they are working to do so now. The tv contract has too much time on it. They'll start working to add teams in about 5 more years.

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If Disney has reason to believe that the B1G will raid the best of the ACC imminently, then Disney may be willing to renegotiate the SEC’s deal to ensure that the best ACC programs are locked down on their networks. Losing the few remaining valuable programs to the B1G and Fox because there are still too many years left on a tv deal would be extremely shortsighted on Disney’s part.

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Not my first two picks by a longshot.

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This tells me that the B1G is trying to round out at 20 and is probably working to add two of the following three: Florida State, Virginia, Miami.

And feel like it's important to note that the source isn't exactly bulletproof. He has posted lots of rumors that didn't turn into anything, even if he was right about USC/UCLA.

Do Big 12 message boards exist? I’ll take a look at phog net once in a blue moon to laugh my arse off at ku fans’ delusion. That’s it.

Nice work, Arky. Florida, LSU, or Penn State may be kicking themselves when they end up having to hire someone worse.