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litangel
| Favorite team: | Oregon  |
| Location: | Eugene, OR |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 2 |
| Registered on: | 8/19/2011 |
| Online Status: |
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As the originator of this thread, thanks for all the comments, I learned a lot. It seems that according to the majority of LSU fans, you have excellent depth in the secondary, and your depth issues in defense might be more at linebacker and a little bit on the line. I learned that the LSU offensive line is a little bet dinged up, and that might be an issue against Oregon.
These two facts make me lean toward a defensive struggle in the final score. Oregon games tend to have more scores because more plays are run because of the Ducks pacing, so 21-17 is a pretty low score for a Duck game, and 15-13, last years score Oregon at Cal is really low.
I think we might be looking in that range for a score. Maybe 17-13.
But despite all the abuse I took for the 52-10 Oregon scenario, I still think that is a real possibility. The thing LSU fans may not know about Oregon, is that can put up 21 Points in less than 5 minutes better than any team in the nation. If LSU just has a short attention lapse, boom, and then if they get way behind, with the current players, they are not set up for a comeback, that is why I saw 3 interceptions in the 52-10 scenario.
Maybe to be fair I could add a LSU 34-6 scenario. It would be just as dominant as Oregon 52-10 but just wouldn't have the point spread cause the Ducks are more explosive on offense.
But in my heart, I see it as a close game, odds about even as to who wins, or an Oregon blowout.
These two facts make me lean toward a defensive struggle in the final score. Oregon games tend to have more scores because more plays are run because of the Ducks pacing, so 21-17 is a pretty low score for a Duck game, and 15-13, last years score Oregon at Cal is really low.
I think we might be looking in that range for a score. Maybe 17-13.
But despite all the abuse I took for the 52-10 Oregon scenario, I still think that is a real possibility. The thing LSU fans may not know about Oregon, is that can put up 21 Points in less than 5 minutes better than any team in the nation. If LSU just has a short attention lapse, boom, and then if they get way behind, with the current players, they are not set up for a comeback, that is why I saw 3 interceptions in the 52-10 scenario.
Maybe to be fair I could add a LSU 34-6 scenario. It would be just as dominant as Oregon 52-10 but just wouldn't have the point spread cause the Ducks are more explosive on offense.
But in my heart, I see it as a close game, odds about even as to who wins, or an Oregon blowout.
2
Objective Oregon Analysis
Posted by litangel on 8/27/11 at 1:35 am
Now that we know pretty much who is going to play, although I am an Oregon fan, I will make an attempt at objective analysis.
ADVANTAGE LSU
1. Preparation Time - Oregon is not a gimmick team but they do have a unique pace and scheme, and extra preparation time does help
2. D-Line - Oregon has made a living on being a little smaller but faster on the lines. Up until now they have trouble with the few schools that were as fast and athletic on the lines AND had greater size
3. Secondary - LSU has the toughest secondary Oregon has seen in 2 years. That plus inexperienced wideouts means LSU could significantly shut down the medium to long passing game.
ADVANTAGE OREGON
1. Darren Thomas - A lot was made of how JJ had improved, but from the reports, DT may have improved as much, and he started a lot higher. If his passing accuracy, and handling the reins of the Zone-read have improved 20%, you are looking at a better QB than anyone in the SEC, which means you can not stack the box on the Oregon running game.
2. Depth - I have heard that LSU has good depth, but Oregon regularly plays 25 players a game on defense. You can not have defensive starters go the whole game against Oregon, they will be dragging by the 3rd quarter, even if they are in excellent shape. I think LSU has the depth on the D-Line, but I wonder how your backup Secondary and Linebackers will do?
3. Coaching - I know LSU has excellent coaching, Miles is good, and Chavis may be the best D-Coordinator in the country. But Kelly is a genius, and our positions coaches as a group are the most experienced and skilled in the nation. The way this will show up in the game is that there will be at least a half dozen OK players who become stars every year. I would look out for Turner, Tuinei, Clay, Mitchell, and Heimuli and Huff if they are healthy.
OVERALL COMMENTS
Why Oregon has failed in a couple of big games - Oregon has been playing at an elite level without the top 10 recruiting classes every year like Alabama, LSU, and USC and other elite programs have had. In the big games with a lot of prep other schools have been able to exploit this weakness in size/athleticism. But Oregon is getting better recruits, and that gap is closing. The only matchup where LSU has a decided size/athleticism advantage is your D-Line vs. Oregon's O-Line.
Missing Players - I think the losses are Harris and Jefferson are about equal. JJ is a quarterback, but as many have said, the drop off to Lee is not great, and Harris is a huge threat. If Alonzo plays, I think the Ducks are at a slight advantage because of the loss of Sheppard.
Even - I think LSU may be used to having the edge in trick plays and Special Teams, but not this time. Kelly has run as may trick plays, possibly More successfully and Oregon is strong on all special teams. If Harris was playing this would be a clear advantage for Oregon.
It will be interesting to see if either of the coaches catch each other's trick plays.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. LSU D-LINE - LSU must dominate the matchup with Oregon;s O-Line. If it is close to a draw and Oregon can run their offense, they score 30+
2. Oregon's Front 7 - In the National Championship game Auburn disrupted Oregon's O, but no more than Oregon disrupted Auburn's, even with Cam Newton. LSU needs to run to set up Lee for some play action, and to keep Oregon's offense off the field. Will Oregon's new front 7 pull it together quickly enough to disrupt LSU's ground game?
I am sure this will be an entertaining game. I see 3 likely outcomes
A- LSU shuts down and frustrates Oregon's offense, Oregon breaks a couple of long runs, but also has a couple of turnovers. LSU runs several long drives. Final score LSU 21 Oregon 13
B- LSU does well in the first half up 14-7, but Oregon;s pacing (even faster than 2010) and some half time adjustments turn the tide, and Oregon wins 35-28 on 4th quarter TD pass to Huff or Paulsen.
C- Oregon gets a couple of quick scores and LSU is forced to play catch up, Lee is intercepted 3 times, and Oregon wins 52-10.
ADVANTAGE LSU
1. Preparation Time - Oregon is not a gimmick team but they do have a unique pace and scheme, and extra preparation time does help
2. D-Line - Oregon has made a living on being a little smaller but faster on the lines. Up until now they have trouble with the few schools that were as fast and athletic on the lines AND had greater size
3. Secondary - LSU has the toughest secondary Oregon has seen in 2 years. That plus inexperienced wideouts means LSU could significantly shut down the medium to long passing game.
ADVANTAGE OREGON
1. Darren Thomas - A lot was made of how JJ had improved, but from the reports, DT may have improved as much, and he started a lot higher. If his passing accuracy, and handling the reins of the Zone-read have improved 20%, you are looking at a better QB than anyone in the SEC, which means you can not stack the box on the Oregon running game.
2. Depth - I have heard that LSU has good depth, but Oregon regularly plays 25 players a game on defense. You can not have defensive starters go the whole game against Oregon, they will be dragging by the 3rd quarter, even if they are in excellent shape. I think LSU has the depth on the D-Line, but I wonder how your backup Secondary and Linebackers will do?
3. Coaching - I know LSU has excellent coaching, Miles is good, and Chavis may be the best D-Coordinator in the country. But Kelly is a genius, and our positions coaches as a group are the most experienced and skilled in the nation. The way this will show up in the game is that there will be at least a half dozen OK players who become stars every year. I would look out for Turner, Tuinei, Clay, Mitchell, and Heimuli and Huff if they are healthy.
OVERALL COMMENTS
Why Oregon has failed in a couple of big games - Oregon has been playing at an elite level without the top 10 recruiting classes every year like Alabama, LSU, and USC and other elite programs have had. In the big games with a lot of prep other schools have been able to exploit this weakness in size/athleticism. But Oregon is getting better recruits, and that gap is closing. The only matchup where LSU has a decided size/athleticism advantage is your D-Line vs. Oregon's O-Line.
Missing Players - I think the losses are Harris and Jefferson are about equal. JJ is a quarterback, but as many have said, the drop off to Lee is not great, and Harris is a huge threat. If Alonzo plays, I think the Ducks are at a slight advantage because of the loss of Sheppard.
Even - I think LSU may be used to having the edge in trick plays and Special Teams, but not this time. Kelly has run as may trick plays, possibly More successfully and Oregon is strong on all special teams. If Harris was playing this would be a clear advantage for Oregon.
It will be interesting to see if either of the coaches catch each other's trick plays.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. LSU D-LINE - LSU must dominate the matchup with Oregon;s O-Line. If it is close to a draw and Oregon can run their offense, they score 30+
2. Oregon's Front 7 - In the National Championship game Auburn disrupted Oregon's O, but no more than Oregon disrupted Auburn's, even with Cam Newton. LSU needs to run to set up Lee for some play action, and to keep Oregon's offense off the field. Will Oregon's new front 7 pull it together quickly enough to disrupt LSU's ground game?
I am sure this will be an entertaining game. I see 3 likely outcomes
A- LSU shuts down and frustrates Oregon's offense, Oregon breaks a couple of long runs, but also has a couple of turnovers. LSU runs several long drives. Final score LSU 21 Oregon 13
B- LSU does well in the first half up 14-7, but Oregon;s pacing (even faster than 2010) and some half time adjustments turn the tide, and Oregon wins 35-28 on 4th quarter TD pass to Huff or Paulsen.
C- Oregon gets a couple of quick scores and LSU is forced to play catch up, Lee is intercepted 3 times, and Oregon wins 52-10.
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