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re: Missi for Rookie of the Year?

Posted by Pels247 on 12/20/24 at 6:10 am to
Castle is now coming off the bench and had another sub-par game last night. If this continues and Missi keeps putting up double doubles I wouldn’t be surprised to see him become the favorite soon. The one I’m surprised isn’t getting more recognition for ROY is Jaylen Wells from Memphis. He seems to be very solid and is starting for a really good team.

re: Missi for Rookie of the Year?

Posted by Pels247 on 12/14/24 at 4:19 pm to
Sadly I didn’t get in at +1800. Got in at +700 though.

Missi for Rookie of the Year?

Posted by Pels247 on 12/14/24 at 8:04 am
I know everyone wants to complain about the season so far, so if you want to do that maybe go to a different thread. But I think Yves might have a legitimate shot at rookie of the year. At a position that was supposed to be our major weakness we have a rookie who in his last 9 games is putting up 13 points on 57% from the field while also getting 11 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.

In NBA.com's rookie ladder he just got ranked 4th behind Jared McCain, Stephon Castle, and Jaylen Wells. McCain is the favorite but has slowed down some in his last few games and is no longer starting and doesn't provide much besides scoring. Castle is a great defender who is putting it together some offensively but is still shooting under 40% from the field and under 30% from 3. Jaylen Wells is playing well and while his numbers are good they aren't spectacular.

What do y'all think Missi's chances of winning rookie of the year are? Fanduel has him at +1500 and I'm thinking of jumping on that since we still have 2/3rd's of the season left. Just for fun I calculated his numbers that if he keeps up his pace that hes at in the last 9 games for another 45 games this season he will end the year at 11.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while having about 1.5 blocks per game. At the current rate that puts him top 15 in rebounds and blocks.

What type of numbers do y'all think he would need to put up to win Rookie of the year?
Beasley isn’t nearly as much of a movement shooter as hawk either. He can somewhat but it’s a lot more catch and shoot. But the main point of my post was this:

1) people talk about Hawk’s potential as if Kessler is 9 years older and not 9 months older thank Hawk. There is still just as much time for Kessler to improve as there is for hawk

2) because of point 1, we need to look at their strengths and weaknesses and the likelihood of making their weaknesses somewhat serviceable. My use of the word elite was surely an exaggeration but it was a more minor part of the reason for my post as the focus was on the weakness to be developed. For hawk that is defense, and for Kessler is spacing. Do we think that Kessler is more likely to have a Jonas like shooting progression where he can shoot threes if left wide open at a decent clip? Do we think he can do better than that? Do we think he can even get to that point? It appears to be something he’s working on.

For Hawk it’s obviously defense. Can he become a neutral defender that allows his offense to become an overall positive? I believe Kessler has more potential to become a serviceable shooter than hawk does at defense.

3) the last point was what if they do not improve and stay with the way their games are now? Once again I think this is a huge advantage to Kessler hence why I would not even hesitate to trade hawk and a first for Kessler.
I agree with you that Kessler is better and Hawk's offensive efficiency numbers as a whole are terrible, hence why I would not hesitate to trade Hawk and a first for Kessler even if we traded BI for a starting center and had Kessler come off the bench. He's that much better than Hawk. But Hawk's shooting skills far transcend the percentages. Hes a true movement shooter in a way that Trey and CJ and many of the other top shooters percentage wide in the league aren't.

The way that Trey, CJ, and Hawk get their threes are all different. Trey mostly has to have other people create his shots for him. He has shown the occasional ability to create for himself whether it be with step backs or especially pull up threes in transition, but outside of that its others creating for him. CJ does his mostly off the dribble or also in transition if he does not have others creating for him. Hawkins can catch the ball on the run off a screen while being chased and just needs the slightest bit of room to get his shot off. So while his 3 point percentage is less than Herb's I would assume most would say that Hawk's three point ability is more valuable than Herb.

That being said, i'm firmly in the trade Hawk and a first for Kessler.
I would rather try for Strus than Levert, although i'm not sure who the Cavs value more. Levert is an expiring and Strus is signed for the next three years so it depends on if they see him as something long term. If they're trading for Cam Johnson they might want to get rid of Strus' long term salary. But he would be perfect off the bench. A movement shooter that can also play defense.

PG: Murray, Jose
SG: CJ, Strus
SF: Herb, Trey
Pf: Zion, Karlo (Trey could play more here too)
C: Allen, Theis


We keep talking about the potential of Hawk but Kessler is less than a year older than him. Kessler still has plenty of time to improve and even in a down year this year was significantly better than Hawk.

Both of them already have an elite skill that is very valuable. Hawk can not only shoot but is a movement shooter and Kessler is an elite rim protector. But both have a major weaknesses. Hawk is a very bad defender and in today’s NBA Kessler can’t space the floor. But both are very young and have the chance to improve this so we have to ask: is it more likely that hawk can become a serviceable defender or that Kessler can become a serviceable floor spacer, even if it’s just like what Jonas was able to do.

Both are still pretty far away, so you also would have to ask: how good are they if they do not improve this skill? At this point in their careers, Kessler contributes more to winning even if we didn’t have a huge black hole at center. I also think he has a better chance at becoming a serviceable shooter than Hawk does at becoming a serviceable defender. So at this point I would definitely trade Hawk and a first (with some protection since we have a history of injuries) for Kessler.
I agree that a third team would need to get involved. One that I think might be interested would be the Spurs. Because of how good Wemby is they need to do everything in their power to keep him. They have a bunch of picks and cap space.

Spurs: Ingram
Pels: Allen and Strus
Cavs: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Sidy Cissoko (filler), picks from Spurs

Cavs get a little more cap space, picks, and a young small forward and backup point guard. We get a Center and a good back up 3&D wing. Spurs get a wing who can help carry the load offensively some for Wemby while surrounding their young players with more vets.
I think Sharpe would be a great option for us if we aren’t able to make an Ingram trade. I’m not sure what it would take to get him, but I imagine it would be much less than Kessler and he should fit into the Kira TPE.

His advanced numbers are actually pretty good. Dunksandthrees has him in the 99th% in offensive rebounding and 95th% in defensive rebounding. They also have him in the 91st% in block percentage.
The way I see it there are only three options:

He was a Trump supporter who tried to kill trump (very unlikely).

He was a never Trumper who hated Trump but registered Republican at a time when the Republican Party was dominated by trump supporters (also unlikely).

He was a democrat who wanted to vote in the republican primary (most likely).


If he had registered as a republican in the early 2000’s I could believe it. But I doubt any never trumpers after 2020 are choosing to register as republican with the way that the party is moving.
Since it seems like a BI trade won't work right now, I wonder what we could get for a CJ trade?

With how good Wemby already is I imagine the Spurs are trying to be as competitive as soon as possible so that they don't risk losing him. They already have Wemby and then other young guys like Castle, Vassell, and Sochan. Adding CJ to Paul and Barnes not only makes them an interesting team, but all of them could bring out the best in their young guys and help to develop them. Plus they have a ton of picks so giving up one probably wouldn't be a big deal.

Jazz get: Spurs 1st, Pels 1st, and Keldon Johnson
Spurs get CJ
Pels get: Kessler and Sexton

re: Positives

Posted by Pels247 on 7/8/24 at 4:56 pm to
Even if you don't like the Theis signing he should be able to give us close to what Nance gave us. And while i was a huge fan of Naji's game I don't think we will miss him that much with the roster as currently constructed. JV is obviously a big loss. The biggest difficulty will be trying to find minutes for all the players that we have outside of center.

But my main point is I think we will be better because Murray will help CJ, Ingram, Herb, Trey, and Zion all play better this year. And they will make him better than any year he has ever had. If whoever comes off the bench fully embraces that role then I think we could be better next year. Especially if we can get at least some other decent center like Reed. But I guess we will see.

Positives

Posted by Pels247 on 7/8/24 at 4:28 pm
Everyone take a break and stop melting for a while to think of the postives. I was origiinally really down on Murray, but I think he will bring the best out of everyone and everyone on our roster can bring the best out of him. Yes the center position will be rough. Yes the roster construction is clunky. But there is reason for optimism. Both Zion and Ingram have played much better when they have a real point guard. And we not only got one, but we got one that when he was the starting point guard his last year for the Spurs was fourth in the league in assists with 9 per game. That was with a starting lineup of Derrick White (before his improvment with the Celtics), a young Keldon Johnson, Doug Mcdermott, and Jakob Poeltl.

This should be the best team that Murray has played with by far. With the Spurs he didn't have any elite offensive talent. He did have one with Trae, but Trae played the position Murray should have been playing. Now he gets elite shooters and an elite big to play with.

His last year in San Antonio he put up 21/9/8. For the 28 games without Trae Young, Murray put up 25/9/6 and that was mostly with guys like Capella, Jalen Johnson, Bogdanovich, Bey, and Hunter. Once again the lineup that we put around him should have much better weapons. I could see him easily putting up an efficient 25/10 while hopefully getting back to at least some of the defensive impact he had in San Antonio. Hopefully we get back to an Ingram that shoots 38-39% on about 6 attempts a game like he did when he was playing with Zo. Zion and Ingram's best years came with Zo at point and Murray is much better. If they can all mesh well they have 3 all star caliber players that have surrounding pieces like Trey, CJ, and Herb as well. That doesn't even include a potential elite movement shooter like Hawk if he can improve this year.

So take a break from melting about things you can't control, and watch these Murray highlights from when he was the point guard in his last year in San Antonio: LINK
Agreed. I think at a minimum he’s a good backup but I would like to see what he can do without Embiid stifling his development. Especially with the type of offense we could have around him. If we’re unable to trade Ingram and get a better starting center then he could play with 4 guys that all can create for him. Even if we don’t see him as a full time starting center I could see his value increasing with increased minutes and the offense that we’re putting together. Then maybe flip him and a pick for a different center.
I'll admit i'm just looking at the stats and haven't dug deep into this. But i'm wondering if he just had a bad series or if he is someone whose play style doesn't translate over to the playoffs similar to a Gobert or Jonas. He seems more versatile and able to play in space than the bigger centers.

He also played a decent bit the previous year in the playoffs and his stats were much better. In the two games he started he put up a double double in each. His per 36 numbers were 11.8 pts, 13.8 rbs, 1 blk, and 1 stl while shooting 58%. I think its just hard to get a true evaluation on him because he backs up one of the top two centers in the NBA and Philly played them very little together.

Thats what I was wondering too. But he does play at the same position as their best player and so he might not be a huge priority. They wanted to sign Caleb Martin and needed the cap space but I would have thought they could have at least gotten a 2nd for him.
The more I look at it the more I think Paul Reed can be really good for this team. Is he the ideal center? Probably not. But I actually think he could be an upgrade over Jonas for this team. We couldn't run an offense through him like we could with Jonas, but with the addition of Murray and possibly keeping Ingram we shouldn't have to. His advanced stats are all good and I think he does a lot of things well and doesn't have any major weaknesses.

He's listed at 6'9 210 lbs but I think he has to weigh more than that as he doesn't look extremely skinny. His rebounding numbers are good (96th% for OR and 85th% for DR). He is also really versatile on defense (85th % for steal % and 93rd% for block %). His on/off numbers aren't great with a -.2 net rating, but I think that has more to do with him being Embiid's replacement.

The thing that is most interesting with him to me is his shooting. His mid range game is actually pretty good and he shot pretty good from three this year which was a major improvement from every other year.

1st year: 0-6
2nd year: 2-8
3rd year: 1-6
4th year: 21-57

Can he keep the same percentage while increasing the volume? If he can, than he can be a pretty good 3&D center which is all that you need with the rest of the team. He just turned 25 so he definetely can improve more and his 3 numbers shows that he recognizes what he needs to work on.
Putting Barnes at the three was more just wanting to clear room for Reed to play more off the bench and the fact that most of our other bench players are guards or bigs. But while I am very high on Reed I might have been too down on Barnes. I actually just looked at 82games and it does seem like he played most of his time at the 3 and was actually pretty good there.
In the regular season I would agree. But this year Barnes was actually not very good. I think come playoffs he would probably not play very many minutes other than injuries. But in the regular season hes a good vet to put out there who knows how to play and could space the floor pretty well at the 4. Although maybe this year was just a fluke cause his advanced stats show he was bad this year but was good the year before.

I'm also just really high on Reed and think that he would be an excellent back up at both the 4 and 5.
I'd rather WCJ too. I think he actually would be really good for us. I'd like to see something like this:

Pels get: WCJ, Barnes, Paul Reed, firsts from Sac

Sacramento gets: Ingram

Orlando gets: Huerter

Philly gets: seconds from Orlando and Nola

Hopefully eventually convince CJ to come off the Bench

PG: Murray, Jose
SG: Herb, CJ
SF: Murphy, Barnes (Playoff time have Herb play some of these backup minutes)
PF: Zion, Reed
C: WCJ, Reed

Throw in a little Hawk and Missi in the regular season to help them develop some but I think this team could be good and could be poised to make even bigger moves in the future with more picks and next year Barnes' and CJ's contracts would be big expirings.
Jose being better than Tyus isn’t a bad take. Someone already mentioned the On/Off numbers but Jose is better in all the major advanced stats that are used:

Jose Lebron: (O: -.3; D: +.09; T: -.21)
Tyus Lebron: (O: +.74; D -1.15; T: -.41)

Jose EPM: (O: -.8; D: +1.8; T: +1.0)
Tyus EPM: (O: +1.6; D: -2.4; T: -.8)

Jose DPM: (O: -.4; D: +1.1: T: +.7)
Tyus DPM: (O: -.4; D: -1.3; T: -1.7)