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Number of Posts:104
Registered on:5/27/2022
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You understand that inflation decelerated in 2008 despite interest rate cuts.

This is not the same as 2008 because interest rates are increasing, not decreasing and that's been the trend so far.

The two scenarios are not the same. You'd expect inflation to decelerate as interest rates go up, not as they go down which is why 2008 was different.
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After college, after Trump mostly gave up his personal athletic interests, he came to view time spent playing sports as time wasted. Trump believed the human body was like a battery, with a finite amount of energy, which exercise only depleted. So he didn't work out. When he learned that John O'Donnell, one of his top casino executives, was training for an Ironman triathlon, he admonished him, 'You are going to die young because of this.


I suppose they too follow the battery theory.
No, I believe he teaches Masters students.
Did you... did you do one of those bullshite masters so you could row? :lol:

Lol.
God.

Downing was beautiful but my friends disagreed.

Friend of mine studied at Emma and he said he got free laundry. Lucky man.

Were you undergrad or post-grad?
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Don’t believe The Tab.


Lol, The Tab. My guy knows.

I mean Oxford is definitely less elitist than it was 40 years ago. It's not like it was when my headmaster and teachers went.

Which college were you in? I lived quite close to Emma when I was younger.
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The point is you base your opinions off off what the media tells you while ignoring what you see. So in reality you actually don't have a real opinion just those the media gave you


This isn't even true.

The media practically praises Biden for his oil policies in terms of shutting down pipelines/going 'green' + student loan forgiveness. I think they're idiotic policy decisions - that's a decision and opinion I formed using my own brain.
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As a Cambridge alum, I can verify this is completely wrong and this Oxford “don” certainly doesn’t know his history.


What are you on about?

They've not used parental background for a long time.

Good one 'don'.

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So the same internet you're using to post on TD doesn't have the ability to log into CNN. Another Lie... you're racking them up and it ain't even noon



I mean to watch/listen, which is what he said. Jesus.

I don't browse CNN at all. It's not a news source I use.

I get the FT, WSJ, The New York Times and the Economist but I also read Bloomberg on occasion.

That's fair enough.

Thanks for responding.

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Biden is supposed to announce a $10000 student loan balance reduction this week. This will add to inflation. More helicopter money. This guy and his administration are idiots. They say they are doing everything to fight inflation. WRONG.


I've got no clue why they're even doing this.

I feel like they don't realize how bad it looks - same with shutting down pipelines etc. Completely idiotic policies and not something I agree with.

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The FED just now started their balance sheet reduction. As always, they are late to the game.



Fair enough.

I think they definitely should have started their balance sheet reduction earlier - I think the problem is the velocity of circulation didn't decline like they were expecting, which caused inflation due to excessive QE and fiscal stimuli.









:banghead:

I'm not listening to CNN. I don't even get CNN where I am (currently not in the US).

I'm just looking at the data here.

This doesn't mean there's going to be a recession.

We're discussing the likelihood of a recession.

Gas prices going up, grocery prices going up, and a lack of products are a symptom of inflation. But inflation doesn't mean there's a recession.

I'm just skeptical -> I just don't see the market crashing to the extent that you guys do. The FED has learnt its lesson from 2008.
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Well that's mighty rich based on you arguments for oil prices that you so adamantly defended of being based on predictions.



I didn't make any predictions - that's discussing the future with certainty.

I discussed what had happened *in the past* - that's not me predicting anything. I've got no idea whether oil is going to go up or down with any real certainty - I made no prediction on oil prices going up or down.

Even here I'm not making predictions with any certainty, there's just nothing I can see *so far*.
Christ dude.

I'm literally asking for a rebuttal.

What exactly are you disputing? Look, I'm the first to admit that I've not studied central banking policy for years and fixed income isn't my specialty. But I'd at least like you to put forward an argument because there's a good chance I could be wrong and I'd like to either strengthen or disprove my position.



Can someone explain how I'm lying or clear things up (again, I'm not fully versed in central banking macro economics so I'm sure someone more knowledgable can clear it up for me)?

I'm explaining central banking policy, not even espousing a political opinion.

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At least you’re not a total liar.



Do you CAPM bro?
Only a moron would say that because it tells me they don't really understand what inflation is.

Inflation is meant to increase. Inflation decelerating is the ideal scenario - the FED targets a 2% increase year-on-year.

If inflation starts decreasing and not decelerating, we've got much, much bigger problems (deflation is dangerous for any central bank).

This is basic central banking policy. I may be wrong - I've not touched macro in years BUT deflation can lead to a deflationary spiral.
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No you're not but what you are doing is repeating the lies your democratic overlords have brainwashed you with. What you need to understand is that we all see the Emperor is running around buck naked


Nobody is brainwashing me.

I'm able to make my own decisions and actions. I'm able to read the facts for myself.

I've got a very healthy investment account where I use both an uncorrelated low-volatility model and a highly correlated levered beta model.











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Then your blind, stupid or...a liar.


I'm just paying attention to the data.

Anyone promising you that they know for sure what's going to happen is lying to you.

LINK

The FED is predicting a 3.7% chance of a recession according to the spread in April 2023. I'm just looking at the figures myself but I'm not saying I know for sure.