pollopolli

@BillStepien

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323329137734397954.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323330666763743232.html

"So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow. President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.
President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure. It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast. You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.

- Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today. Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6. Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.

- Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning. Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.8. Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.

- Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania. Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left. Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.

- Don Jr. is in Arizona today to etch the state into our win column. Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it’s D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.

- What about Florida? Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it’s D +1. Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4. President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.

- Pres. Trump will head to Kenosha later today. In Wisconsin, weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +12.3 - today it’s D +5.9. Going into Election Day in ‘16, the gap was D +9.6. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 100k net votes.

- Nevada? Democrats jumped out to a D +27.3 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5. Flashback: going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +7.9. President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 50k net votes.

- Like 2016, Pres. Trump will end the day in Michigan. Congrats: Democrats have banked their high propensity voters. We have nearly 2 million voters left. Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be 350k - we project an Election Day votes cast margin of 400k+ for Pres. Trump.

Look, it’s pretty simple - if the voters that we KNOW are still out there for Election Day show up ON Election Day, President Trump has four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

McCullough

"Final poll before the election for #DemocracyInstitute #SundayExpress poll: TRUMP is up 4% in New Hampshire."