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re: Official BCS Discussion Thread

Posted by tigermikear on 11/27/11 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Only the low is thrown out, not the high and low

I don't think that's accurate. Per the bcs website (bcsfootball.org)

A team's highest and lowest computer ranking will be discarded from figuring a team's computer poll average. Points will be assigned in inverse order of ranking from 1-25. The four remaining computer scores will be averaged and the total will be calculated as a percentage of 100.
quote:

Can you please tell me how the Sagarin Ratings @ USAToday Sagarin Ratings is calculated


I'm not Matt, but I think the bcs drops the high and low computer ranking to get rid of outlier results like this...

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread

Posted by tigermikear on 11/27/11 at 9:41 pm to
I think Houston, if they get the at large bcs bid, should play LSU for the nc. Hear me out. They are undefeated, ranked in the top 6 in both the polls and computers, won their conference, and will be in one of the BCS.
Not afraid of playing bama again, or osu for that matter...but you have an undefeated bcs participant that is highly ranked by the polls AND computers.
I've said this in another thread, but a selection committee could really help this whole process...
quote:

frankly I prefer a fully conditional system.


This. A plus one is unnecessary in most years. Have a selection committee like in ncaa bb. If there are 4 teams with legitimate claims to the mnc, then use 2 bcs bowls as semi finals, with the nc game the next week (like it is now) all you do is cost a couple of 6-6 teams a bowl spot somewhere. S be it.
In years where it's not necessary, just play the mnc game as usual. If you need a play-in game (like this year maybe...osu vs. Bama?) ) then you've got the bcs games to handle it.
Selection committee...no change to the bowl schedule...no plus one when it's not necessary.

re: Arkansas - Just so I understand -

Posted by tigermikear on 11/20/11 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

This is going to be 4 of 5 soon.


I love how the "3 out of 4" talk leaves out the fact that it's also 3 out of 8. Home team has always won (3x) since Petrino v. Miles. Arky has beaten LSU in BR only 2x in 20 seasons.
quote:

worried?


quote:

whether we beat Arky or not


no.
Their computer strength (#2) keeps a wedge between us and Arky/Bama if we lose. If they lose to OU, Arky and Bama will jump a spot in the computers in the final BCS.

If we win, possible voter sentiment for OSU after beating OU may throw them in the BCSNCG, which would be preferable to a Bama rematch.
quote:

.Hope fully LSU will be the first team to win a NC under a two-QB system.


LSU (2007) and Florida (2006) both did it.
Bama had only made 1 fg over 40 yds all season...a 45 yarder. The long kicker was the one who kicked it. He was 1/3 on the season before last night. The bama coaches were to blame for trotting those guys out over and over for near 50 Yard field goals. The 44 yd attempt was the only legitimate "opportunity" they missed in the kicking game.
The first stats didn't, and it's still less than a yard difference.

But when we consistently start at midfield, there are less yards for us to get, so it matters a little...

Yards per Play vs. WVU (comparison)

Posted by tigermikear on 9/28/11 at 2:27 pm
While the D needs to get better defending the short passing game, a closer look at the Yards per Play stats from the WVU game shows it wasn't as bad as it seems. The WVU offensive imbalance covered how much we shut them down in the other phases. They ran 18 more plays than we did.

LSU Run (41 for 186), Pass (28 for 180) = 5.3 YPP
WVU Run (22 for 70), Pass (65 for 463) = 6.1 YPP

If you add all punt and KO returns to the stats, things really change (100 YD KO return helps, but 0 punt returns for WVU is amazing)

LSU add Returns (7 for 199) = 7.4 YPP
WVU add Returns (6 for 100) = 6.8 YPP

Nothing ground breaking here, but we're not by any stretch considered a high powered offense, and we ended up with similar YPP than WVU, who set records Saturday night.
I say 3.

AUB/ORE
OSU/ARK
WISC/TCU

2 are at best decent.
ALA/MSU
LSU/aTm

Out of 35 bowl games...3? maybe 5? I guess you can blame the conference tie-ins...
The hotel argument is way overrated. From a pure revenue evaluation, the extra ticket sold to a local lsu fan ($150 avg) is worth more to the bowl than the tax revenue from 2 nights hotel room ($50-75) is to the city.

Still think arky goes. But not for economics sake.
quote:

ive totally discredited this in previous posts.


You haven't. The 2 schools' allotments only account for <40k of the 70-80k tickets that will be sold.

The school can ask for more tickets beyond its allotment. Sugar bowls involving LSU (even the LSU/ND one) sell more tickets than those not involving LSU, by as much as 12,000 tickets, which makes sense- as the locals have a reason to want to buy tickets late and go to the game.

Arky's main advantage isn't even that they beat LSU, it's that they are finishing on a much higher note (and ranked higher)
quote:

there is not a single measurable in LSU's favor of being selected over Arky.


Agree with everything you said until this point...ticket sales go LSU's way. 5,000 more tickets is $750,000 real dollars.

But again, I want them to play somewhere else.
quote:

to pass it off as just tax money is silly and just plain wrong.


I think in the end, they want the best possible matchup. The corporate sponsors make sure most of the economics work. Just tired of hearing how Hog fans paying for hotel rooms makes them an obvious choice. Economically it doesn't add up. What makes them an obvious choice is 31-20 and #7 in the BCS.
quote:

to sell that many hotel rooms between arky and tosu at that high of a price the city must be creaming its pants


Unless the city owns the hotels, then all that matters is the tax revenues. I think the tax rate is 14% on hotels. So if Hog fans reserve (and pay for) 30,000 more rooms at $300/night (double the normal rate) than LSU, then that is $1,260,000 in tax revenue to the city. Which is equal to selling 8,400 more tickets. That's why i say it is a wash.
I thought all the same things until I heard the former Arky SID (he's on the radio daily up here, and handled this stuff for years...) say that Arkansas would sell half the tickets of LSU (official allocations+LSU biased locals). I think in the end, the economic part of the LSU/Arky decision is a push. Especially when you consider the main benefit of "hotel rooms" is the tax associated with the room, not the revenue of the nightly rate...it gets even more irrelevant.

We're on the same team here...no big deal. Just an interesting debate.
quote:

you dont get the opportunity to sellout the whole place


Schools get to ask for 2nd, 3rd, 4th allotments of tickets if they sell them out. Google it.
quote:

more idiocy. do any of you really think lsu would sell a single ticket more than arkansas to the sugar bowl? u think we would sell half the hotel rooms? come on.


Don't really want to see LSU/tOSU part II. But on the revenue merits, LSU is more attractive.

Per Arky's former SID (in the last week) Arkansas would buy no more than 20k tickets (which would be a little more than their allotment) and in his opinion (and I agree) LSU would buy at least 40k (considering the location). So...

20k x $150 avg price= $3,000,000
40k x $150 avg price= $6,000,000

Bowl revenue difference $3,000,000
If Arky takes 10k hotel rooms at $150/nt = $1,500,000
If LSU takes ZERO = $0.

Even if you include food, the whole "tourism" aspect doesn't add up for Arky to be more attractive. Even if I'm overestimating the LSU ticket sales...I'm underestimating the LSU hotel sales (0).

If the Sugar Bowl chooses them (which they probably should) then so be it...but it won't be for $$ reasons.

re: 3rd in the West?

Posted by tigermikear on 11/28/10 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

technically tied for 2nd, why would there be a tiebreaker for something that is totally irrelevant


This is my exactly my point. Technically we tied for second.

It's also possible that I'm sensitive to it since I live in Little Rock.