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Tiger of the Shire
| Favorite team: | LSU |
| Location: | Charlotte, NC |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 28 |
| Registered on: | 12/16/2018 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: My Take Some make like, many will hate
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 10/12/26 at 12:34 pm to KCSunshine
quote:
** the call to punt at end of with 2 minutes left was RIGHT CALL
Strongly disagree. A terrible call before knowing the outcome. What's the chance that LSU can convert a 4th and 1 from their own 42? Statistically for most teams it's about 65%-70%. I don't think LSU is any worse than that. That's 65%-70% LSU ends the game right then and there on the road in a pretty electric environment.
Compare that to what the chances are for LSU's defense to keep Kentucky from getting in makeable field goal range with 1min 40 sec from their own 20 with no timeouts, knowing they will have all 4 downs to work with and this is college where clocks stop every first down. I'd consider it a 50/50 proposition. Especially knowing how Baker's defenses shift philosophy to soft zone prevent-style defense in end of half situations. So you're giving up a 65%+ chance at victory in regulation for a 50% chance of victory in regulation if you punt. That's hugely significant.
And by willingly giving Kentucky the ball down 3, LSU also willingly opened the door to a potential loss in regulation. Let's not forget that after punting, Kentucky ultimately had two passes at the end of regulation from inside LSU's 20 yard line. One was defended well by Cooley in the endzone. And on 3rd down, Kentucky very nearly gained a new first and 10 from LSU's 13 yard line with 12 seconds left and the clock stopped, but Kentucky's TE ran a route 1 yard shy of the first down marker when he fell out of bounds. This could have easily provided UK with 2 more shots to the end zone before kicking the FG for OT.
Again, don't ignore that LSU had the opportunity to not even open the door to any of that if they just had the guts and skills to execute a conversion from 1 yard away. It likely cost LSU the game. Don't undersell it.
re: Lane's mistake and what he learned
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 10/11/26 at 5:57 pm to 756
quote:
Trusting analytics which said punt and trust Defense ranking.
The analytics said go for it in this situation 1,000 out of 1,000 times. He betrayed his belief in analytics and it cost him.
re: LSU is paying $100 million for a pussified version of Lane Kiffin
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 10/10/26 at 10:31 pm to The Boat
quote:
The Lane Kiffin of old goes for it there every time.
Every competent college coach in 2026 goes for it every time in that position. Analytics say go for this 100 out of 100 times.
re: Mental mistakes are inexcusable in the NFL.
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/27/26 at 10:38 pm to t00f
This was biggest, most egregious reffing error of the game. Most obvious hold right in front of the referee. Should’ve been 2nd and 20 from the 31 yard line. Instead it’s first and goal from the 6. Absolutely huge and total garbage.
re: A few numbers on the two “Professional NFL players” LSU is trying to sign
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/3/26 at 12:37 pm to GeauxldMember
quote:
Good info. You mind citing your source on this? I’d like to dig into it a little.
No worries, I got my information on the signing bonus / guarantees from OverTheCap. Zxavian Harris LINK. Daequan Wright LINK.
Source for Dae'Quan's lack of participation in any preseason games: LINK
Link for Zxavian Harris being waived prior to any participation in activities referencing zero snaps: LINK
On3's latest annual NIL value estimates: Zxavian LINK; Dae'Quan LINK
Regarding the Aug. 19 TRO requiring termination of pro contract and repaying, this CBS article cites the specific language in the order.
The mentioned examples of some of the other college players that attended NFL mini camps and now back enrolled on college teams were from a variety of media articles that I found with some cursory online research. There are additional NFL minicamp attendees than I listed that are on current college rosters too. A quick google on each mentioned or use of AI search will help surface the articles quickly.
:cheers:
re: A few numbers on the two “Professional NFL players” LSU is trying to sign
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/3/26 at 12:13 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
How would he be materially different than the guy at Texas?
Cole Hutson explaining his NFL career to his grandkids: "I had multi-day tryouts, wearing the jerseys and helmets while practicing with both the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys. In the end, it didn't pan out."
Zxavian Harris explaining his NFL career to his grandkids: "I once signed a sheet of paper which included the Saints logo. In the end it didn't pan out."
I'd rather have Cole's "NFL career" myself.
A few numbers on the two “Professional NFL players” LSU is trying to sign
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/3/26 at 11:46 am
I was previously unaware of some of the actual financial and performance numbers behind Wright and Harris' esteemed NFL careers, so just sharing the specifics.
Dae'Quan Wright: $25K signing bonus, $50K total guaranteed/actual NFL earnings. Cut by Philly before its first preseason game, claimed by Cleveland, didn't play in either Browns preseason game, then cut again. NFL snaps: 0. Current On3 annual college NIL valuation: $530K.
Zxavian Harris: $0 signing bonus, $0 guaranteed, $0 listed NFL contract earnings. Recovering from foot surgery, never participated in a single Saints practice and was cut from before the preseason. NFL practices: 0. NFL snaps: 0. Current On3 annual college NIL valuation: $770K.
One other fact I really hadn't seen mentioned much: the court order requires them to PAY BACK whatever professional money they received before they can play in college.
And compare that to some of the other 2022 guys getting fifth years. Cole Hutson (Texas) went to Cowboys and Browns rookie minicamps. Trent Hendrick (UCLA) went to Browns and Chiefs minicamps. Alex Afari (Kentucky) practiced at Packers rookie minicamp. Sterling Webb (Missouri) practiced at Bills rookie minicamp. None got contracts, so they can potentially play college football in 2026.
That's apparently the line: not whether you ever played in the NFL, or even practiced in the NFL, but whether somebody handed you a bottom-of-the-roster UDFA contract. Wright got one worth $50K guaranteed; Harris got one worth $0 guaranteed and never even practiced. Both signed at a time when the NCAA was telling them their college careers were already over, and they'd have to return the money before being able to return to college. Good thing we're drawing the line there. Wouldn't want a $0-guaranteed, zero-practice NFL veteran threatening the “integrity of college sports.”
Dae'Quan Wright: $25K signing bonus, $50K total guaranteed/actual NFL earnings. Cut by Philly before its first preseason game, claimed by Cleveland, didn't play in either Browns preseason game, then cut again. NFL snaps: 0. Current On3 annual college NIL valuation: $530K.
Zxavian Harris: $0 signing bonus, $0 guaranteed, $0 listed NFL contract earnings. Recovering from foot surgery, never participated in a single Saints practice and was cut from before the preseason. NFL practices: 0. NFL snaps: 0. Current On3 annual college NIL valuation: $770K.
One other fact I really hadn't seen mentioned much: the court order requires them to PAY BACK whatever professional money they received before they can play in college.
And compare that to some of the other 2022 guys getting fifth years. Cole Hutson (Texas) went to Cowboys and Browns rookie minicamps. Trent Hendrick (UCLA) went to Browns and Chiefs minicamps. Alex Afari (Kentucky) practiced at Packers rookie minicamp. Sterling Webb (Missouri) practiced at Bills rookie minicamp. None got contracts, so they can potentially play college football in 2026.
That's apparently the line: not whether you ever played in the NFL, or even practiced in the NFL, but whether somebody handed you a bottom-of-the-roster UDFA contract. Wright got one worth $50K guaranteed; Harris got one worth $0 guaranteed and never even practiced. Both signed at a time when the NCAA was telling them their college careers were already over, and they'd have to return the money before being able to return to college. Good thing we're drawing the line there. Wouldn't want a $0-guaranteed, zero-practice NFL veteran threatening the “integrity of college sports.”
re: Poll: Are you in favor of LSU adding players with NFL experience to the roster?
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/3/26 at 9:52 am to I-59 Tiger
A total of $50,000 (split between Eagles and Browns each paying $25,000) according to OverTheCap.
And Zxavian Harris received $0 signing bonus or guaranteed.
What's also largely being ignored is the Aug. 19th temporary restraining order requires the players to repay the money received as a professional before able to return to a college team.
And Zxavian Harris received $0 signing bonus or guaranteed.
What's also largely being ignored is the Aug. 19th temporary restraining order requires the players to repay the money received as a professional before able to return to a college team.
re: Arvell Reese not impressing
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 12/7/25 at 12:43 am to TeachemMeachem17
(No Message)
re: Pete Nakos has obtained the lawsuit...
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 11/11/25 at 1:09 pm to lsufan0582
I found the attached exhibits most interesting. Did Verge's insecurity allow him to get baited by Kelly's attorney? I thinks so. Here's the sequence that caught my attention:
On Oct. 31 (after Woodward fired/resigned), Kelly's attorneys send email to John Carmouche (LSU BoS) (copying Verge) looking for written confirmation that LSU intends to honor terms of BK's buyout payments. Email references Oct. 27 call with Verge and Ms. Cromer of LSU where they "confirmed LSU intended to honor the terms of the Agreement pertaining to termination without cause". He goes on to end the email declaring that Verge ended the same conversation on Oct. 27 by saying that "someone from the LSU Board of Supervisors or the Governor's Office would be reaching out for further discussions."
The reference of Verge having made a statement implying that the Governor's office might be running further buyout discussions seems to have struck a nerve with Verge. (He's already being painted as a 'Yes Man' for the Gov on these message boards and locally so it's got to be an insecurity of his, especially if he did not actually say this.)
So the next day (Nov. 1) Verge replied with a short email stating "Good evening. At no time did we say someone from the governors office would be reaching out. We said someone from the Board of supervisors would be reaching out. That is the only time I had any conversation with any of Coach Kelly's representatives."
Attorneys do not receive any other response from Carmouche, Verge or otherwise. Kelly's attorneys go on to use this email response from Verge as an additional supporting exhibit in the filing to show how Verge corrected them on something he felt was wrong (misquoting him referencing that someone from Gov.'s office would reach out). They contend that Verge's silence on correcting anything else about the email implies he had no disagreement with their contention that he previously communicated LSU's intention to honor the terms of the Agreement pertaining to termination without cause.
If the lawyer just slipped that reference in about the governor's office to bait Verge into a response... I admit that was pretty slick.
Take-away: Don't ever even reply to lawyers trying to get you to rep something on paper. Even your silence in failing to retort something can be used against you.
On Oct. 31 (after Woodward fired/resigned), Kelly's attorneys send email to John Carmouche (LSU BoS) (copying Verge) looking for written confirmation that LSU intends to honor terms of BK's buyout payments. Email references Oct. 27 call with Verge and Ms. Cromer of LSU where they "confirmed LSU intended to honor the terms of the Agreement pertaining to termination without cause". He goes on to end the email declaring that Verge ended the same conversation on Oct. 27 by saying that "someone from the LSU Board of Supervisors or the Governor's Office would be reaching out for further discussions."
The reference of Verge having made a statement implying that the Governor's office might be running further buyout discussions seems to have struck a nerve with Verge. (He's already being painted as a 'Yes Man' for the Gov on these message boards and locally so it's got to be an insecurity of his, especially if he did not actually say this.)
So the next day (Nov. 1) Verge replied with a short email stating "Good evening. At no time did we say someone from the governors office would be reaching out. We said someone from the Board of supervisors would be reaching out. That is the only time I had any conversation with any of Coach Kelly's representatives."
Attorneys do not receive any other response from Carmouche, Verge or otherwise. Kelly's attorneys go on to use this email response from Verge as an additional supporting exhibit in the filing to show how Verge corrected them on something he felt was wrong (misquoting him referencing that someone from Gov.'s office would reach out). They contend that Verge's silence on correcting anything else about the email implies he had no disagreement with their contention that he previously communicated LSU's intention to honor the terms of the Agreement pertaining to termination without cause.
If the lawyer just slipped that reference in about the governor's office to bait Verge into a response... I admit that was pretty slick.
Take-away: Don't ever even reply to lawyers trying to get you to rep something on paper. Even your silence in failing to retort something can be used against you.
re: Kelly offered a settlement at 43 million
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 11/11/25 at 12:17 pm to p226
LSU would pay less because BK is currently contractually obligated to look for work at a reasonable fair market value rate for his credentials, which would offset $ for $ what we owe him. Simply settling for the approx PV of the annuity that LSU owes does not compensate LSU for the search-for-work & offset clause, which has value.
BK would be incentivized to settle for less because:
(a) by settling for less LSU would remove the work requirement (allowing him to sail off into sunset rather than work a media job or a Tier 3 head coaching job); or
(b) if he wants to keep coaching, LSU's removal of the offset language would allow him to 'double dip' the payoff from LSU + get to keep 100% of what he earns on a new job (and in his mind score more than $54mm).
BK would be incentivized to settle for less because:
(a) by settling for less LSU would remove the work requirement (allowing him to sail off into sunset rather than work a media job or a Tier 3 head coaching job); or
(b) if he wants to keep coaching, LSU's removal of the offset language would allow him to 'double dip' the payoff from LSU + get to keep 100% of what he earns on a new job (and in his mind score more than $54mm).
re: This lawsuit is just posturing by Kelly. $25m & $30m offers weren’t enough.
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 11/11/25 at 10:08 am to Covingtontiger77
I agree with you. I thought from the start that ~$35mm was likely the lowest that Kelly might consider, but $40mm likely more accurate.
Kelly knows he's damaged goods now coming off a failed LSU experiment and no certainty he gets a great rebound opportunity. He'll accept a number that he's confident would allow him to surpass $54mm based on additional coaching compensation.
Sure I'd bet a Boston College or Arkansas-type job might pay him a 4 year deal at $4-$5mm annually. And that would allow him to surpass $54mm total comp, but also some risk that this doesn't play out.
I'd speculate that LSU was hoping by introducing the potential "for cause" firing that Kelly would be more willing to negotiate a number more to their liking to avoid any additional public discussion of Kelly's potential wrongdoings. But Kelly has essentially called their bluff by filing the lawsuit and making the "for cause" attempt public.
This posturing by Kelly however makes me think it's more likely that his preferred outcome is to be done with coaching rather than taking a position at a clear Tier 3/4 program without championship aspirations. If that is the case, the calculus might shift up towards a lumpsum closer to $45mm (which is around the present value of his contractual payments assuming he can get a 5-6% annual return).
Kelly knows he's damaged goods now coming off a failed LSU experiment and no certainty he gets a great rebound opportunity. He'll accept a number that he's confident would allow him to surpass $54mm based on additional coaching compensation.
Sure I'd bet a Boston College or Arkansas-type job might pay him a 4 year deal at $4-$5mm annually. And that would allow him to surpass $54mm total comp, but also some risk that this doesn't play out.
I'd speculate that LSU was hoping by introducing the potential "for cause" firing that Kelly would be more willing to negotiate a number more to their liking to avoid any additional public discussion of Kelly's potential wrongdoings. But Kelly has essentially called their bluff by filing the lawsuit and making the "for cause" attempt public.
This posturing by Kelly however makes me think it's more likely that his preferred outcome is to be done with coaching rather than taking a position at a clear Tier 3/4 program without championship aspirations. If that is the case, the calculus might shift up towards a lumpsum closer to $45mm (which is around the present value of his contractual payments assuming he can get a 5-6% annual return).
re: Got scammed by someone trolling this board...be careful
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 6/13/25 at 2:16 pm to TheDuke5524
Pretty sure there’s a scammer going by Phoebe Brandon (phoebebrandon2021@gmail.com) and “her husband” Erin Rogers (erinrogers1963@gmail.com) trying to sell LSU vs Clemson lower level tickets at below face value (claimed from LSU but I read LSU was only allotted uppers).
They do have screenshots that appear like might be from LSU ticket acct but came off very sketchy so 99% sure they’re a fraud (but did not send them $ to find out). Beware for Clemson ticket searchers.
They do have screenshots that appear like might be from LSU ticket acct but came off very sketchy so 99% sure they’re a fraud (but did not send them $ to find out). Beware for Clemson ticket searchers.
re: WTB 2-4 Clemson tickets
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 6/11/25 at 3:59 pm to LSUGoose
I'm also interested in 2-4 tickets. shiretiger@gmail.com Thanks
T or F: With Nuss as our QB, LSU should be running a Pro-Style offense
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 11/15/24 at 10:15 am
*By Pro-style, I mean heavy mix of QB under center and shotgun. Modern usage of heavy play-action and motion.
I say True. Why? In a spread offense like LSU's where the offense is in shotgun every snap, the most effective running sets typically utilize the Read-Option (what was so deadly with JD5, where QB can hand off or keep & run). Yet we all know that we get zero value from running the Read-Option since Nuss is one of least mobile QBs in the country.
The other benefit to a spread system would be RPOs (where QB can quickly read Defense and decide to throw an immediate pass or hand it off to RB). But LSU rarely uses these situations to big positive effect. Maybe once or twice a game I've seens a quick throw to WR in that situation, but nothing that really stresses the defense.
Meanwhile, in our current spread system, Play-Action is largely neutered. Play action just does not have the same effect when executed by a QB/RB standing flat-footed next to each other 5 yeards behind line of scrimmage. If Nuss was taking snaps from under center, I think our usage of play-action would be far more effective. Plus: occasional short yardage QB sneaks would also be far less predictable than currently (when we are only under snap for a QB sneak).
I'd basically love to se an offense modeled after the system run by the Detroit Lions. Their QB (Goff) is very immobile, but they have guys run free all day (particularly over the middle of the field). Of course, it helps having a stout o-line, which we seem to lack.
I say True. Why? In a spread offense like LSU's where the offense is in shotgun every snap, the most effective running sets typically utilize the Read-Option (what was so deadly with JD5, where QB can hand off or keep & run). Yet we all know that we get zero value from running the Read-Option since Nuss is one of least mobile QBs in the country.
The other benefit to a spread system would be RPOs (where QB can quickly read Defense and decide to throw an immediate pass or hand it off to RB). But LSU rarely uses these situations to big positive effect. Maybe once or twice a game I've seens a quick throw to WR in that situation, but nothing that really stresses the defense.
Meanwhile, in our current spread system, Play-Action is largely neutered. Play action just does not have the same effect when executed by a QB/RB standing flat-footed next to each other 5 yeards behind line of scrimmage. If Nuss was taking snaps from under center, I think our usage of play-action would be far more effective. Plus: occasional short yardage QB sneaks would also be far less predictable than currently (when we are only under snap for a QB sneak).
I'd basically love to se an offense modeled after the system run by the Detroit Lions. Their QB (Goff) is very immobile, but they have guys run free all day (particularly over the middle of the field). Of course, it helps having a stout o-line, which we seem to lack.
WTB 2 tickets to USCe (preferably Lower Bowl) UPDATE: PURCHASED/NO LONGER NEED
Posted by Tiger of the Shire on 9/11/24 at 12:42 pm
Looking for 2 tickets to LSU vs USCe (lower level preferably, LSU section preferably).
Email: shiretiger@gmail.com
Thanks!
UPDATE: Purchased tickets, no longer in need.
Email: shiretiger@gmail.com
Thanks!
UPDATE: Purchased tickets, no longer in need.
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