Boagni Swamp

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Anytime you use the word "should" to describe a random process, you know you are full of shite.

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A huge numbers of dice rolls is NOT random in its overall distribution. One roll is random. 10,000 rolls are going to produce roughly 1666 sevens. Now it might be 1610. It might be 1704. But the chances of it being 3 are so small they are not worth considering. Its random within a pretty predictable range. And I can work with that.

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This has to do with the averages of a sufficiently large sample size. It doesn't have anything to do with the next marginal step.

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That's my point. I'm not counting on a single roll. I'm counting on 20 hours of rolls to be about average. That seems like a good bet.

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I'd rather spend my money at a bar and have a 10% chance of getting laid than sitting at a casino by myself and have a 0.02% chance of winning $5 after spending $4000

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Perhaps my odds of getting laid are a little better than yours. And cheaper.

That's some pretty simple shite right there.

24 x 12 = 288.

48 divided by 24 = 2.

I don't get it. That's like kindergarten stuff.

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You're not guaranteed to always go in the positive at a long enough time span.

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Seems like you are if you are willing to stand there long enough. Statistically, the big down swings should be balanced by the big upswings.

I guess your point is that you can hit a downswing and still be days of rolling away from the offsetting upswing. I can roll for 24 hours or so straight, but that's about my limit. Maybe he is right.

These two guys were acquitted in similar circumstances. Had anyone ordered a Code Red on the burglar?

I need an opinion on craps strategy, which will settle a side bet with one of my jackass friends. Here it is.

I contend that you can nearly always walk away from the craps table ahead or even if you have a big enough wad and are willing to invest the time.

The house edge on a high odds table is only about .02%. But the volatility in craps is very high, with the gambler going up and down very quickly.

If you have enough money, you can weather the downs. If you have enough time, you can roll the downs back to at least even. If you have the discipline on the upswings -- walking away when you have hit a preset win amount -- you can walk away with money before your upswing turtles and heads back down.

Putting it all together, I say that with a big enough roll of cash, enough time, and a little discipline, you can always walk away even or ahead.

Any math folks wanna weigh in?

Here's a WOWYHI for your trouble.

It seems like every day I hear a rumor that the police are about to be cleared by the Feds and that the city will burn.

Does anyone actually know what the status of the investigation is?

Ahhhhhhh!!!!!! Now I see your point. I was a little slow on that one.

It was a lot more than that. He did a long you tube conversation with Long. I'll see if I can find the link.

Eta: Disregard. I was wrong. It was linked on Long's page, but he wasn't talking to Long.