quote:
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden +4.4 Clinton +5.7

Florida (29)
Biden +1.4 Clinton +3.8

Wisconsin (10)
Biden +6.1 Clinton +6.8

Michigan (16)
Biden +7.2 Clinton +10.0

North Carolina (15)
Biden +2.7 Clinton +2.6

Arizona (11)
Biden +3.9 Clinton +1.3

Ohio (18)
Trump +0.5 Trump +0.6

Georgia (16)
Biden +1.2 Trump +4.0

New Hampshire (4)
Biden +11.0 Clinton +8.0

Iowa (6)
Biden +1.2 Trump +2.0

Nevada (6)
Biden +5.2 Clinton +4.2

Texas (38)
Trump +4.4 Trump +4.8

The way I’m reading this, Trump is going to win Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. I am going to call bullshite on Georgia. I’m also pretty skeptical about Biden winning Iowa. However, I will give him Iowa, Nevada and Arizona as per this polling.

That gives Trump to 279 to Biden’s 259.

Biden is polling worse in most of those states than Clinton did in 2016. This is in one poll. This isn’t just Trafalgar or Rasmussen. This is a conglomeration of many polls, many of which are left leaning. I ask anyone right or left to produce any evidence that Biden has a better chance of winning the electoral college than Clinton did in 2016.

This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 11:04 pm

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Posted by simonizer

Member since Oct 2008

1647 posts

Posted on 10/18/20 at 10:58 pm to mule74

(no message)

This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 10:59 pm

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Posted by blowmeauburn

Baton Rouge

Member since Sep 2006

7885 posts

Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:01 pm to mule74

Biden isn’t winning Georgia, Iowa, or Ohio. You can take those off now.

This race will come down to Florida, NC and whether or not Trump can pull off a PA or MI or WI again.

Nevada and Arizona may flip. Doesn’t matter.

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Posted by TigerCruise

Virginia Beach, VA

Member since Oct 2013

11898 posts

Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:19 pm to blowmeauburn

I think you see a lot of red on November 3rd.

Michigan is pissed at Whitmer and Democrats
Florida is happy with their Republican governor
Ohio isn't going blue
Pennsylvania is trending red the closer we to the election

It could be more lopsided than 2016 and Joe could still win the popular vote because 20 million people voted in California.

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Posted by ChexMix

Taste the Deliciousness

Member since Apr 2014

24985 posts

Posted on 10/18/20 at 11:52 pm to TigerCruise

quote:
Michigan is pissed at Whitmer and Democrats
Florida is happy with their Republican governor
Ohio isn't going blue
Pennsylvania is trending red the closer we to the election

Maine has their fishing territory restored thanks to Trump. New Hampshire was in the bag for Trump til late evening ballot dump that gave hillary a 3k lead. Oregon is dealing with chaos which cant help the Dems.

And lets not forget that Hispanics are going towards Trump more than last cycle as are Blacks

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Posted by scottfruget

Member since Nov 2010

3392 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 4:00 am to ChexMix

(no message)

This post was edited on 1/13/21 at 6:21 pm

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Posted by MFn GIMP

Member since Feb 2011

19348 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 6:28 am to mule74

quote:
However, I will give him Iowa, Nevada and Arizona as per this polling.

Arizona polling, such as yesterday, has frequently shown Biden getting 97% of the Dem vote while Trump is only getting 1%. It's just not realistic to think Trump will only get 1% of Democrat votes in any state. Most polls also show him winning independents in Arizona as well so I'm pretty confident that Trump will win there.

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Posted by DougsMugs

Georgia

Member since Aug 2019

8239 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:09 am to mule74

Wouldn't it be cool, if the Democrat polling firms are using the exact same voter lists they used in 2016?

I wonder how many of the same people are getting called this time as got called last time.

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Posted by ValDawgsta

Member since Jan 2020

1542 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:11 am to mule74

quote:
However, I will give him Iowa, Nevada and Arizona

If Trump wins PA, WI, and MI he will absolutely trounce Biden in Iowa. It's significantly more red than those 3 states.

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Posted by mule74

Watersound Beach

Member since Nov 2004

11301 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:36 am to blowmeauburn

I agree about Iowa. Trump won it by nine points in 2016. I cannot imagine that he will lose it now even if it’s closer.

This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 8:37 am

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Posted by BayBengal9

Bay St. Louis, MS

Member since Nov 2019

4171 posts

Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:51 am to MFn GIMP

quote:
Arizona polling, such as yesterday, has frequently shown Biden getting 97% of the Dem vote while Trump is only getting 1%. It's just not realistic to think Trump will only get 1% of Democrat votes in any state. Most polls also show him winning independents in Arizona as well so I'm pretty confident that Trump will win there.

Someone last week, I believe it was Rush, was discussing various opinions and articles discussing the "shy" Trump voters... and the general consensus is that the people MOST likely to lie to pollsters about their vote are Democrats and white suburban women.

I think he significantly overperforms in both demographics relative to what polling shows.

This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 8:51 am

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