re: Nate Silver doesn’t want to talk about these polls showing Trump leading

The genius of 538 is assigning a probability to an outcome based on various data points. It never has to be right. It can never be proven to be wrong.

You probably don't take an umbrella to the office if there is only a 20% chance of rain, but if you get caught in an afternoon shower, they don't fire the weather man.

So the key to Nate's success isn't being right more than anyone else, but to tell his patrons what they want to hear. Much like the court jester, he must entertain to remain in the good graces and service of the king. As such, he's been calling this for Biden for months. Watch as he moves this to toss-up on election eve.

He did the exact same thing in 2016. After calling for a Clinton landslide for months, he noted late breaking polls for Trump, cited "other indicators" that were not defined, and moved the race to toss-up the day before the election.