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Message
The BCS Rankings if LSU and Oklahoma State both trip up (LONG)
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:19 pm
I know this is long, but I hope some of you enjoy the explanation. I have been running computer polls for CFB for a few years now, and I find the BCS to be exceptionally interesting. I can post a link to computer polls I have run in the past for those of you who doubt my credibility on this subject.
IF LSU and OSU both lose, this will be the craziest BCS year of all. I truly despise the way the system forgives losses the earlier they happen. In no particular order, you would have the following NC contenders:
11-1 LSU
11-1 Bama
11-1 Oklahoma*
11-1 OSU*
11-1 Arkansas
11-1 Oregon
11-1 Stanford
11-1 Clemson
11-1 Virginia Tech
* I know that OSU and OU play on the same day as the conference championship games, so now I will address the championships. I am well aware of the SEC divisional tie-breaker. I cannot see LSU falling behind Arkansas in the BCS. The polls will be all over the place, but LSU has the two best wins in CFB right now with Oregon and Bama. I think that keeps them even or ahead of Arkansas on most ballots. They will certainly be ahead of Arkansas in the computers, and that will give them the advantage in the BCS standings. Then Bama-LSU would be a head-to-head deal, and LSU would get the nod in the SEC Championship game. Assuming they beat Georgia, that puts them at 12-1. Oregon will be in the PAC-12 championship, and that puts them at 12-1. I think Virginia Tech beats Clemson in the ACC game, and that puts them at 12-1. Now you have:
12-1 LSU, SEC West and SEC champions
12-1 Oregon, PAC-12 North and PAC-12 Champions
12-1 Virginia Tech, ACC Coastal and ACC Champions
11-1 Oklahoma
11-1 Oklahoma State
11-1 Alabama
11-1 Arkansas
11-1 Stanford
IF LSU and OSU both lose, this will be the craziest BCS year of all. I truly despise the way the system forgives losses the earlier they happen. In no particular order, you would have the following NC contenders:
11-1 LSU
11-1 Bama
11-1 Oklahoma*
11-1 OSU*
11-1 Arkansas
11-1 Oregon
11-1 Stanford
11-1 Clemson
11-1 Virginia Tech
* I know that OSU and OU play on the same day as the conference championship games, so now I will address the championships. I am well aware of the SEC divisional tie-breaker. I cannot see LSU falling behind Arkansas in the BCS. The polls will be all over the place, but LSU has the two best wins in CFB right now with Oregon and Bama. I think that keeps them even or ahead of Arkansas on most ballots. They will certainly be ahead of Arkansas in the computers, and that will give them the advantage in the BCS standings. Then Bama-LSU would be a head-to-head deal, and LSU would get the nod in the SEC Championship game. Assuming they beat Georgia, that puts them at 12-1. Oregon will be in the PAC-12 championship, and that puts them at 12-1. I think Virginia Tech beats Clemson in the ACC game, and that puts them at 12-1. Now you have:
12-1 LSU, SEC West and SEC champions
12-1 Oregon, PAC-12 North and PAC-12 Champions
12-1 Virginia Tech, ACC Coastal and ACC Champions
11-1 Oklahoma
11-1 Oklahoma State
11-1 Alabama
11-1 Arkansas
11-1 Stanford
8
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:19 pm to slackster
The computers would look something like this:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Oklahoma State
4. Alabama
5. Arkansas
6. Oregon
This is where it gets hairy. The BCS is compiled of the human polls and the computer polls. In the human polls, you get a percentage based on how many points you received divided by the total points possible. For example, in the Coaches’ poll, 1475 points are possible. All 1st place points (25) gives you 1475 points, or a 1.000 percentage. All 2nd place points results in 1416 points, or a .9600 percentage. The same is true of the Harris poll, except their total is 2875. For the computers, you drop the highest and lowest single rating, and then you get points based on the remaining 4 computers. 25 points for 1st down to 1 point for 25th. If your computer poll numbers are 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, and 3, you would drop the 1 and the 3, and get 25+25+24+24 for a score of 98 out of 100, or a .980. You then add all three percentages (Harris, Coaches, and Computer) and divide by 3 for your BCS ranking.
Given the scenario I have presented with no undefeated BCS-conference teams (sorry Houston), the computers are going to be HUGE. There are what I call “clear-cut” BCS scores. A clear-cut #1 would have a score of 1.000, meaning they are #1 on all human ballots and they are #1 in at least 5 computers (remember, you do not have to be #1 in all 6, because your lowest and highest are dropped, therefore being #1 in all six is just as good as being #1 in 5 and #25 in the other). A clear-cut #2 is a score of .9600, meaning the team is #2 on EVERY ballot and #2 in at least 5 of the computer polls. If there are multiple 1-loss teams, there will probably not be any clear-cut teams in the human polls. LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, OSU, Oregon, and Arkansas will be in various spots on everyone’s ballot, but they will all probably be in the Top 6. It will be MUCH easier for one of these teams to be a clear-cut team in the computers, however. The reason is simple: Although each computer formula spits out decimals, the BCS only cares about the team’s relative ranking. LSU may only clear Oklahoma by .01 points in the Sagarin ELO-CHESS rating, but as far as the BCS is concerned, LSU is #1 and Oklahoma is #2 in that poll. To extrapolate even further, let’s say LSU is #1 in all of the computers, even by only the slightest of margins. That will give them a 1.000 computer ranking and Oklahoma would be a .9600, at best. For Oklahoma to be higher than LSU in the composite BCS ranking, they would have to overcome that margin (.04) in the human polls. Assuming the pollsters are closely aligned, and Oklahoma makes up ground proportionately in the polls, Oklahoma would need 58+ points more than LSU in the Harris Poll and 30+ points more than LSU in the Coaches’ Poll to edge out LSU in the BCS standings. Granted, Oklahoma could conceivably pick up that margin more in one poll than the other (80 points in the Harris poll and 18 points in the Coaches’ poll would do it also), it is highly unlikely that the polls would be that much different.
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Oklahoma State
4. Alabama
5. Arkansas
6. Oregon
This is where it gets hairy. The BCS is compiled of the human polls and the computer polls. In the human polls, you get a percentage based on how many points you received divided by the total points possible. For example, in the Coaches’ poll, 1475 points are possible. All 1st place points (25) gives you 1475 points, or a 1.000 percentage. All 2nd place points results in 1416 points, or a .9600 percentage. The same is true of the Harris poll, except their total is 2875. For the computers, you drop the highest and lowest single rating, and then you get points based on the remaining 4 computers. 25 points for 1st down to 1 point for 25th. If your computer poll numbers are 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, and 3, you would drop the 1 and the 3, and get 25+25+24+24 for a score of 98 out of 100, or a .980. You then add all three percentages (Harris, Coaches, and Computer) and divide by 3 for your BCS ranking.
Given the scenario I have presented with no undefeated BCS-conference teams (sorry Houston), the computers are going to be HUGE. There are what I call “clear-cut” BCS scores. A clear-cut #1 would have a score of 1.000, meaning they are #1 on all human ballots and they are #1 in at least 5 computers (remember, you do not have to be #1 in all 6, because your lowest and highest are dropped, therefore being #1 in all six is just as good as being #1 in 5 and #25 in the other). A clear-cut #2 is a score of .9600, meaning the team is #2 on EVERY ballot and #2 in at least 5 of the computer polls. If there are multiple 1-loss teams, there will probably not be any clear-cut teams in the human polls. LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, OSU, Oregon, and Arkansas will be in various spots on everyone’s ballot, but they will all probably be in the Top 6. It will be MUCH easier for one of these teams to be a clear-cut team in the computers, however. The reason is simple: Although each computer formula spits out decimals, the BCS only cares about the team’s relative ranking. LSU may only clear Oklahoma by .01 points in the Sagarin ELO-CHESS rating, but as far as the BCS is concerned, LSU is #1 and Oklahoma is #2 in that poll. To extrapolate even further, let’s say LSU is #1 in all of the computers, even by only the slightest of margins. That will give them a 1.000 computer ranking and Oklahoma would be a .9600, at best. For Oklahoma to be higher than LSU in the composite BCS ranking, they would have to overcome that margin (.04) in the human polls. Assuming the pollsters are closely aligned, and Oklahoma makes up ground proportionately in the polls, Oklahoma would need 58+ points more than LSU in the Harris Poll and 30+ points more than LSU in the Coaches’ Poll to edge out LSU in the BCS standings. Granted, Oklahoma could conceivably pick up that margin more in one poll than the other (80 points in the Harris poll and 18 points in the Coaches’ poll would do it also), it is highly unlikely that the polls would be that much different.
This post was edited on 11/14/11 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:19 pm to slackster
Finally, under the scenario I presented, with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State and LSU losing to Arkansas, but still going to the SEC Championship, I am ready to present my BCS prediction:
1. LSU, who would likely be a clear #1 in the computers with wins over Oregon, Alabama, and Georgia. The Arkansas loss would hurt their poll position, but not enough since they are the unanimous #1 right now even with OSU undefeated.
2. Oklahoma. Oklahoma would likely slide into the #2 spot in the computers with a win over OSU. They would also work their way into the top 3 on most ballots, and that should be enough to get them into the #2 spot and the BCS National Championship.
3. Alabama. Alabama would likely move up to #1 or #2 on most human ballots, but the computers will be their downfall. They will likely be wedged out of the BCS Championship because Oklahoma State will stay at #1, 2, or 3 in all of the computers. Alabama could conceivably be as low as 5 in some computers if Penn State continues to lose and Arkansas wiggles into #4. Since LSU will remain so strong in the computers, Arkansas will get more miles out of their win over LSU than Alabama will out of their win over Arkansas. This computer ranking will be too much to overcome despite Alabama likely being in the top two of most people’s ballots.
4. Oklahoma State. Computers will do wonders for the Cowboys. They could be as low as 6th in the human polls, but they will not be any worse than 3rd in any of the computers.
5. Arkansas. The win over LSU will move them up in the human polls and they will likely be #4 or #5 in most of the computers. This should give them the edge over Oregon, despite Oregon likely being #3 in the human ballots
6. Oregon. They will probably be in the top 3 of most human ballots, but they will not be any better than 6th on the computers, and that will hurt the Ducks.
Now, Alabama fans are going to cry foul, so let me explain the problem for Bama. If Oklahoma State loses, and LSU wins out, Alabama will almost surely be the #2 team on every human ballot. As it stands today, they already are getting #2 votes in the Harris and USA Today polls, even with OSU undefeated. That “clear-cut” #2 in the human polls SHOULD be enough to keep Alabama #2 in the BCS, despite likely being #4 in the computers behind LSU, OSU, and Oklahoma. This is because human voters will have hell trying to pick between Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State for the #3 team on their ballot, and that confusion, especially if Oregon gets the nod on most ballots, should leave a big enough gap for Alabama to squeeze by, but I can easily see Oklahoma getting in here as well.
However, if OSU and LSU lose, Alabama will have a tougher time being a clear-cut #2. Voters will want to punish LSU for their loss, but they may have a hard time justifying putting LSU behind Bama when LSU already beat Bama and has the more impressive resume. Oklahoma may squeeze into the #1 spot on some ballots as well. The combination of Oklahoma probably getting #1 votes and Bama getting #3 votes, along with Bama falling behind Oklahoma, LSU, OSU, and possibly Arkansas in the computers will be too much for Bama to overcome.
Ironically, for Bama fans, if you want a crack at the National Championship, I think you should pull for Oklahoma in a close game over OSU, but you should NOT pull for Arkansas to beat LSU. I do not think you will get in the SEC Championship with an Arkansas win, and you will not get to the National Championship with a win either.
To sum it up, if LSU wins out and OSU wins out, this thread is moot. If LSU wins out and OSU loses to Oklahoma, Bama is probably in, but Oklahoma has a shot. If LSU and OSU lose, then it is LSU against Oklahoma in the NC. Finally, although it wasn’t covered, if OSU wins out and LSU loses to Arkansas, LSU still plays for the NC (mainly on their computer strength). LSU is in as long as they win out or lose to Arkansas but still play in the SEC Championship game and win. In fact, LSU should be in if they win out and LOSE to UGA, because they will still be #1 or #2 in the computers and will not fall very far below Bama and Oregon, if they fall below them at all in the human polls.
1. LSU, who would likely be a clear #1 in the computers with wins over Oregon, Alabama, and Georgia. The Arkansas loss would hurt their poll position, but not enough since they are the unanimous #1 right now even with OSU undefeated.
2. Oklahoma. Oklahoma would likely slide into the #2 spot in the computers with a win over OSU. They would also work their way into the top 3 on most ballots, and that should be enough to get them into the #2 spot and the BCS National Championship.
3. Alabama. Alabama would likely move up to #1 or #2 on most human ballots, but the computers will be their downfall. They will likely be wedged out of the BCS Championship because Oklahoma State will stay at #1, 2, or 3 in all of the computers. Alabama could conceivably be as low as 5 in some computers if Penn State continues to lose and Arkansas wiggles into #4. Since LSU will remain so strong in the computers, Arkansas will get more miles out of their win over LSU than Alabama will out of their win over Arkansas. This computer ranking will be too much to overcome despite Alabama likely being in the top two of most people’s ballots.
4. Oklahoma State. Computers will do wonders for the Cowboys. They could be as low as 6th in the human polls, but they will not be any worse than 3rd in any of the computers.
5. Arkansas. The win over LSU will move them up in the human polls and they will likely be #4 or #5 in most of the computers. This should give them the edge over Oregon, despite Oregon likely being #3 in the human ballots
6. Oregon. They will probably be in the top 3 of most human ballots, but they will not be any better than 6th on the computers, and that will hurt the Ducks.
Now, Alabama fans are going to cry foul, so let me explain the problem for Bama. If Oklahoma State loses, and LSU wins out, Alabama will almost surely be the #2 team on every human ballot. As it stands today, they already are getting #2 votes in the Harris and USA Today polls, even with OSU undefeated. That “clear-cut” #2 in the human polls SHOULD be enough to keep Alabama #2 in the BCS, despite likely being #4 in the computers behind LSU, OSU, and Oklahoma. This is because human voters will have hell trying to pick between Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State for the #3 team on their ballot, and that confusion, especially if Oregon gets the nod on most ballots, should leave a big enough gap for Alabama to squeeze by, but I can easily see Oklahoma getting in here as well.
However, if OSU and LSU lose, Alabama will have a tougher time being a clear-cut #2. Voters will want to punish LSU for their loss, but they may have a hard time justifying putting LSU behind Bama when LSU already beat Bama and has the more impressive resume. Oklahoma may squeeze into the #1 spot on some ballots as well. The combination of Oklahoma probably getting #1 votes and Bama getting #3 votes, along with Bama falling behind Oklahoma, LSU, OSU, and possibly Arkansas in the computers will be too much for Bama to overcome.
Ironically, for Bama fans, if you want a crack at the National Championship, I think you should pull for Oklahoma in a close game over OSU, but you should NOT pull for Arkansas to beat LSU. I do not think you will get in the SEC Championship with an Arkansas win, and you will not get to the National Championship with a win either.
To sum it up, if LSU wins out and OSU wins out, this thread is moot. If LSU wins out and OSU loses to Oklahoma, Bama is probably in, but Oklahoma has a shot. If LSU and OSU lose, then it is LSU against Oklahoma in the NC. Finally, although it wasn’t covered, if OSU wins out and LSU loses to Arkansas, LSU still plays for the NC (mainly on their computer strength). LSU is in as long as they win out or lose to Arkansas but still play in the SEC Championship game and win. In fact, LSU should be in if they win out and LOSE to UGA, because they will still be #1 or #2 in the computers and will not fall very far below Bama and Oregon, if they fall below them at all in the human polls.
This post was edited on 11/14/11 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:20 pm to slackster
quote:
reserved
for what?
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:20 pm to PortCityTiger24
More posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:21 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Whoops I didn't realize he started the thread...thought it was some retard saying "IN!!!!"
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:31 pm to slackster
Nice work dude... Any thoughts on if LSU beats Arky but loses to UGA in SEC champ game?
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:35 pm to The Mick
quote:
Nice work dude
quote:
Any thoughts on if LSU beats Arky but loses to UGA in SEC champ game?
LSU is in. Their computer strength will still be in the top 2 and I doubt they fall below Bama or Oregon enough in the human polls to counteract that strength.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:37 pm to slackster
If LSU loses to Arkansas, but then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game, they are still going to be play in the national championship game.
And it will likely be against Oklahoma.
And it will likely be against Oklahoma.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:38 pm to slackster
quote:
LSU is in. Their computer strength will still be in the top 2 and I doubt they fall below Bama or Oregon enough in the human polls to counteract that strength.
No way, IMO.
If LSU loses doesn't win the conference championship, they are done. They'll fall behind Alabama in the BCS, while teams like Oregon and either OU or Okie State will be conference champions while we won't be.
You aren't considering the real possibility of the human voters trying to manufacture the match-up that they want and counteract the computers.
This post was edited on 11/14/11 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:39 pm to slackster
quote:I don't doubt your credibility, though I am very interested in seeing your work. Do you give any background on your models? (I do this on my job but don't have time to mess with more interesting focus like football.) Thanks in advance.
I can post a link to computer polls I have run in the past for those of you who doubt my credibility on this subject.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:40 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
If LSU loses doesn't win the conference championship, they are done. They'll fall behind Alabama in the BCS, while teams like Oregon and either OU or Okie State will be conference champions while we won't be.
Why would they fall behind Alabama? If you a pollster, who should go first on your poll - 12-1 LSU, or 11-1 Alabama, who lost to LSU or 12-1 Oregon, who also lost to LSU?
Plus, LSU will have a commanding compuer lead over both Bama and Oregon.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:41 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
If LSU loses to Arkansas, but then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game
Do they automatically get the invite if they drop below Bama in the BCS?
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:42 pm to slackster
quote:What if UGA stumbles and LSU plays against a 2-loss SECe team, would that hurt them or be irrelevant?
LSU is in. Their computer strength will still be in the top 2 and I doubt they fall below Bama or Oregon enough in the human polls to counteract that strength
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:42 pm to slackster
Great work, but I disagree with this bit of analysis:
In the scenario in which OU beats OSU and LSU wins out, I'm willing to be OU leaps Bama in the poll on the back of their conference title and quality win over OSU. Bama's in trouble there too. If OSU and OU do not lose before Bedlam, I think that game is a virtual play-in game.
quote:
Now, Alabama fans are going to cry foul, so let me explain the problem for Bama. If Oklahoma State loses, and LSU wins out, Alabama will almost surely be the #2 team on every human ballot. As it stands today, they already are getting #2 votes in the Harris and USA Today polls, even with OSU undefeated.
In the scenario in which OU beats OSU and LSU wins out, I'm willing to be OU leaps Bama in the poll on the back of their conference title and quality win over OSU. Bama's in trouble there too. If OSU and OU do not lose before Bedlam, I think that game is a virtual play-in game.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:43 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
You aren't considering the real possibility of the human voters trying to manufacture the match-up that they want and counteract the computers.
I think you are being a tad bit naive, but I respect your opinion. Two things are going to work against this. First, the human voters are going to have to find a way to collaborate and group their votes. Even if they all agree that they do not want to see LSU in the NC, they will have to agree on who they are going to put in there ahead of them. If they all agree to keep LSU out of #2, but half put Bama there and half put Oregon there, then LSU will still get in.
The second reason is the fact that the humans do not know what the computers will look like before they turn in their votes, so it is inherently difficult to keep a team out.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:44 pm to slackster
College football needs a damn playoffs. All this who deserves to be in the title game based on yada, yada, yada is ridiculous. Settle the title on the damn field and do away with all this damn nonsense.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:45 pm to The Mick
quote:
What if UGA stumbles and LSU plays against a 2-loss SECe team, would that hurt them or be irrelevant?
In the computers, who you beat is far more important than who you lost to. LSU would have wins over Oregon and Alabama as well as Arkansas.
As an example, Oklahoma lost to a dog-shite Texas Tech team, but they are still #5 in the computers and the BCS.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:45 pm to Baloo
So everyone is predicting losing to Arkansas would mean nothing...that LSU would literally only drop to #2 in the polls?
I can see staying ahead of Oregon but I wouldn't discount dropping below Bama (considering some pundits still tout them as the best team) if LSU loses by a TD or two.
I can see staying ahead of Oregon but I wouldn't discount dropping below Bama (considering some pundits still tout them as the best team) if LSU loses by a TD or two.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:47 pm to Baloo
quote:
In the scenario in which OU beats OSU and LSU wins out, I'm willing to be OU leaps Bama in the poll on the back of their conference title and quality win over OSU. Bama's in trouble there too. If OSU and OU do not lose before Bedlam, I think that game is a virtual play-in game.
That is why I said I could see Oklahoma squeeking by Bama. Bama has no shot in the computers. They will be #4 behind LSU, Oklahoma, and OSU. They will need to be a clear #2 in the human polls to make it. Right now, they are better than that, so there is still a chance. I would consider it 55-45 Bama is in with a OSU loss.
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