re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

Ok great...Well said...the catastrophic part is more for BR/Laffy, they don't need another drop of rain. NOLA doesn't want it, but damn give BR & Laffy a break.

And no one needs anything in the gulf in late August/early Sept...

No shite. After homes that are/were flooded definitely don't need this. For the homes getting gutted right now or just emptying the contents of their homes will be complete devastation to the parishes hit. Going to get supplies to rebuild and also supplies that are necessities are already difficult to find. Now imagine a hurricane or TS- everyone will be trying to get to the store, get gas, Home Depot, etc. Like WTF Mother Nature? You trying to wipe LA off the map???? Guess if you didn't prep or evacuate for the flood it'd be best to get ready incase this storm heads our way, Crap.

This is from Dr. Master's blog in Wunderground regarding the recent rain fall in BR

quote:

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Baton Rouge has its wettest month in 174 years of recordkeeping

The astounding rains that led to catastrophic flooding in Louisiana led to a phenomenal monthly rainfall total in Baton Rouge, where formal weather observations began quite early, in 1843.

As of Sunday, the August rainfall total in Baton Rouge was 26.97”, which crushes the previous record of 23.73” (May 1907), according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. This monthly total includes 0.76” on Sunday and a total of 6.08” since August 14, when the rains directly associated with the flood-making upper low had already ceased.

For the summer since June 1, Baton Rouge has picked up an amazing 40.95”--more rain in three months than downtown Los Angeles has recorded over the last five years (38.79”)!

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Wait, we were mad when he didn't come right away, and we're mad that he's coming now. Gotta love the OT.

Back to the subject at hand, these models are giving me a queasey feeling.

At this rate, it should be making its way into the gulf over the weekend although it's forecasted to slow down. Between the recent floods and the now famous hurricane day of August 29th, seeing a hurricane knocking on the door is the last thing Louisianians want to see.

Jim, I'm just saying the timing is off.

No one nationally gave a shite for a whole damn week.

As with the OT, I drop my politics at the door, but if this happened in another US city, he'd have been here sooner.

ETA: But more importantly...lets keep a damn close eye on this storm

Yeah, nice burst of convection from 99L this morning..coming as Gaston looks like shite on enhanced IR.

99L has yet to show a closed circulation on satellite winds, but there's another pass coming in a few hours, and of course there's recon scheduled to leave in about 6 hours.

Also the second straight model run of the ECMWF is putting 99L into the Gulf, which is the first time there's been any run-to-run consistency on either of the major global models. GFS is wildly different but it has yet to show any sort of consistency at all.

I've got the GFS out to 84 hours right now and I don't see anything egregious yet. if it makes another hard right at the Bahamas though...

ECMWF doesn't intensify until 96 hours either. They're both consistent with it not having a closed circulation yet.

That being said, the area over the bahamas looks pretty prime for development. I think it should develop a bit faster than either model anticipates.

Keep in mind that models are meant to be used as guidance and not actual forecasts

but the GFS does keep the wave together over Florida and hints at a possible depression southwest of the bend. It's closer to the ECMWF than it appears at first glance. Don't throw it out entirely.. there's some cause for concern.