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re: Ebola successfully treated with HIV drug

Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:20 pm to
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14964 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:20 pm to
quote:

You call 70% mortality rate and over 2000 dead mild?


Try not to be upset by the language as if it were dismissive. It's not. His following post explains what he means, and he's right.

There are a handful of Ebola virus species in the broader Ebolavirus family (literal taxonomic "family" and "species"- not talking about strains of the same species). The 1976 outbreak in Zaire (Democratic Republic of the Congo) killed 280/318 (88%) infected. This species was, for a while, referred to as the Zaire ebolavirus. It has since been come to be renamed simply "ebola virus." Many outbreaks in the past you'll here about refer to one of the other 4 family members: Sudan (mortality rates of 54%, 68%, and 53% in 76, 79, and 00-01, respectively), Reston (not documented to cause disease in humans, to date, but wreaks havoc on nonhuman primates), Ivory Coast/Côte d'Ivoire (one, single case in a human described- a labworker who took tissue samples from dead chimps who had died of hemorrhagic fever. She was treated for 2 weeks in Switzerland, and fully recovered 6 weeks later), and Bundibugyo (new species first detailed in 2008, 116 cases, 39 deaths, or 34% mortality).

So, in terms of all the Ebolavirus family, a 70% mortality rate is definitely on the more severe side. However, the current virus is, specifically, EBOV/Ebola Virus/Zaire Ebolaviruses in nature, and a 70% mortality rate in that species is lower than average. The word "mild" may not necessarily be the best to describe it, but it most definitely is milder than other strains in its species. I would not necessarily agree that the lower fatality rate is the sole cause of the increased number of cases and the reason that the infected haven't rapidly died off so as to not spread to others. The time course seems to be roughly the same as with other viruses. It's probably a contributing factor, but it's probably not the sole factor. Being in areas of higher population concentration alone may be both the reason for the rapid spread and the lower fatality rate, because the health care is better. Unfortunately, that is not known at this time. But try not to miss the meaning of his post- it's not meant to be upsetting or dismissive of how severe of a disease process or epidemic this is.
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
38508 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:26 pm to
There is also an ongoing outbreak in DRC which is a different species. I believe it is the 90% mortality rate variety. I don't believe it has ties to the outbreak in Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 10:28 pm
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14964 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

I believe it is the 90% mortality rate variety


According to the CDC, the initial reports of the DRC outbreak yielded a mortality rate of 13/24 (54%). Updates on 9/9, 9/21, and 9/24 yield deaths/cases of 35/62 (56%), 41/68 (60%), and 42/70 (60%). Unless a high volume of cases was reported elsewhere, I think the 90% mortality rate sounds a little high for that outbreak.


Again, a 60% mortality rate is by no means low. But relatively speaking, I'd much rather a 1/3 chance than 1/10.


ETA: You are very much correct that the two outbreaks are not believed to be related at this time.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 10:38 pm
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
38508 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

According to the CDC, the initial reports of the DRC outbreak yielded a mortality rate of 13/24 (54%). Updates on 9/9, 9/21, and 9/24 yield deaths/cases of 35/62 (56%), 41/68 (60%), and 42/70 (60%). Unless a high volume of cases was reported elsewhere, I think the 90% mortality rate sounds a little high for that outbreak.



This is not what I wanted to hear. I would prefer it be the high mortality rate species. I don't like being in the middle of two outbreaks. If they don't contain it in Lagos that could be massive disaster. I believe (hope) it's been contained there until now.
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14964 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:51 pm to
quote:

This is not what I wanted to hear. I would prefer it be the high mortality rate species.


Not sure how credible the source of New24 is, but they seem to claim that, given WHO data (which I cannot find and disagrees with the CDC numbers), no new cases have been reported in 12 days. It's definitely small and slowly growing at this point.
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
38508 posts
Posted on 9/29/14 at 11:01 pm to
I get the Daily Digest and Country Risk Forecasts. There hasn't been much talk on those about the DRC outbreak. Cameroon has closed it's borders with Nigeria which is making quite a logistics mess for us.
Posted by MeatSlingingFool
Maurice, LA
Member since Sep 2014
304 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 6:43 pm to
Apparently they finally got their shite together because the CNN article has been edited and now reads, "that's about a 13% mortality rate."
Reporters are good with words, but not math obviously. Lol.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 6:56 pm to
Do you think this strain may have been selected for sure to a lower mortality rate and longer incubation?

Would stand to reason it would increase its ability to spread
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92876 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:14 pm to
quote:

Do you even Placebo effect bro?



Who cares if it is a placebo, if it makes people feel better its all good.
Posted by pensacola
pensacola
Member since Sep 2005
4629 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:37 pm to
From what I read, Tussin will be used in the control group.
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