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re: COVID questions for user Hopeful Doc - and others too I guess

Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:22 pm to
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

Several health professionals I know believe what we are seeing right now is a weaker strain or mutated strain of the original Cornovirus, which is why you are seeing varying symptoms. Some are only suffering from fatigue and stomach pain while testing positive, some only have body aches, some just feel drained but testing positive


The problem with this is we had tons of these Covid patients with mild symptoms before we had covid tests so widely available. physicians weren’t seeing the mild cases because no one was testing them.

That will certainly make it look like it’s weakening.

The virus is incredibly stable to this point
This post was edited on 7/12/20 at 9:23 pm
Posted by Lithium
Member since Dec 2004
64394 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 10:01 pm to
quote:

What is our best path back to “normal” as a society? Is it a vaccine? Is it some form of herd immunity? Is it a treatment?


Vaccine won't be any time real soon. Probably Herd immunity. 99.5% are going to get better
quote:

What level of personal concern/action do you advocate for “healthy” individuals under 50, above and beyond traditional preventative measures (wash hands, etc) Masks? Social Distancing? Stay at home? Or do you advocate this age group return to “normal” (or some version) now?


just don't be stupid. Practice social distancing. You can go hang out with a few friends but don't go to Fred's. Everything should be open but practice esocial distancing.
quote:

What do you advocate for the group over 50, or those with comorbidities? (Or draw any other age/condition delineation you’d like)

Average death rate is 81. If you have diabetes, HTN, fat, over 70 stay home as much as possible.
quote:

How concerned are you about re-infection?

Very little, but I thought it would burn out with the warm weather. If you get it you are probably going to be fine. I have seen an increase in cases the past 2 weeks but not as many really sick patients. Not as many admits and no intubations
Posted by Spankum
The Sip
Member since Jan 2007
63359 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 10:19 pm to
Thanks for that, lith....I value your opinion.
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
15388 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

So, as I understand it, the hope is we can achieve some level of herd immunity (via multiple methods perhaps including vaccine) before this coronavirus mutates multiple times and becomes like other coronavirus’ and evades us due to its many forms. Is that right?



Eh, not exactly.
So the virus that's circulating right now is unlike anything the human body has ever seen. Some bodies are having a hard time with that. Eventually, enough people will have gotten it that there isn't enough reservoir for the virus to be a big threat, and people will have an immunity to it (ideally).
Over time, all viruses change a bit. I sort of oversold the significance of this as WaWa up above pointed out (I'll point out to him that I was just making the theoretical statement that any given point mutation could have an affect on antigenic recognition, but even that's generally going to imply a weaker reinfection in a host). You should probably just take it as "you'll likely become immune once you contract it" and leave it at that. The rest was a bit too lost in the branches to make out the forest. Sorry about that.
If I had to restate more competently what I was trying to say at a level someone isn't in medicine would understand, it would be that a mutated version would be very unlikely (yet maybe theoretically possible) to make you very sick a 2nd time and would probably be shaken off in a few days at worst. It typically takes something like we have experienced here to resurface. It tends to happen about once every 80-120 years as I understand it.

quote:

Also, the comparisons to other coronavirus’ is helpful, but the analogy breaks down because this one can produce more severe symptoms (in those whom it appears), and is more highly contagious. Is that right?



Well, how contagious something is and how virulent something is are two different things.
Make no mistake, this is plenty contagious, but the bigger "threat" of this virus is how virulent it is in the old and the infirmed and the immunocompromised (many people think this means "AIDS" or similar, but the more systemic chronic illnesses a person has, the worse their immune system is going to be, or so it seems). As you get older, your immune system wanes a bit, too. It isn't as strong as it once was. But it typically remembers things that it's had before still.
Example (theoretical):
You're 4. You're exposed to a virus (corona, entero, coxsackie, parainfluenza, etc). You get a fever, a runny nose, and a cough for 3 days. You get better. A year later you get exposed to the same virus. This time, you just cough and have a runny nose for 2 days. The next year, just one day. Then you get exposed for the next 80 years to the same one and barely get a sniffle. But at 84, you get the sniffles for 2 days. And then at 85, you get a fever from it and the same infection as when you were 4. Just an illustration


So, this one is a brand new virus. We have new flu viruses all the time. Most people are exposed to influenza on a yearly basis. Many get immunized and carry some immunity to the new version because it was pretty close to the old one and barely get sick from it if they do get it. Many of these, of course, still wind up with symptoms that are noticeable and unpleasant. This, although a coronavirus, is a brand new, never-before-seen virus, so the 84 year old above is seeing it for the first time. Not the 80th time or more. And his immune system is weak. So he gets a whole lot sicker. This thing is still way less virulent (ability to make someone sick) than Ebola, for instance. And the actual "how contagious" it is isn't really known, but I've not gotten it (clinically) yet, and I've been in a room with a confirmed positive patient closely examining them on at least 30 occasions. It doesn't go through the skin. It doesn't land on your neck and crawl into your mouth. It takes very few particles to make you ill and, if susceptible, very ill. But prevention by masking, gloving, thorough cleaning, and avoidance of contact are all very effective.

Another, simpler way of saying it would be...if we fast forward a decade, the same virus that's killing 70 year olds today may just cause the sniffles (or a bronchitis, or a diarrheal illness...) in the 70 year olds who got it at 60 and lived just because of the way virus exposure, re-exposure, and the immune system work.
That would be, of course, picked apart. It is just meant to try to be a practical explanation of what a possible/likely scenario is. Not a fact. And it could be incorrect.
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
15388 posts
Posted on 7/12/20 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

I thought it would burn out with the warm weather



In March I thought Labor Day was the return to normal.
Mrs Hopeful thought that was way too long an estimate. Now neither of us think it's anywhere near long enough.
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