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re: Bracketology - UPDATED 3/15

Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:03 am to
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:03 am to
I agree. They are missing Lighty in a bad way. If Mullens comes back (obviously he will, but I'm still eternally that people are in his ear telling him he's pro material), Diebler continues to improve, and Lauderdale can become even more useful, this team is deadly with no one graduating this year.

Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:04 am to
My MODIFIED bracket projections after Sunday, February 22

NOTES:
-Kansas jumps and swaps out with Wake Forest
-LSU up to a 5, but gets shipped west for round 1
-All top seeds the same, but Pitt takes overall number one
-Miami jumps in as the last team with a projected 8-8 ACC record; but since they can't play in Miami, they get shipped to the northwest for the first round
-The mediocrity of a couple of conferences is matching up a lot of "BCS" conference teams in the first round = good stuff
-Based on my best understanding of the stupid-arse "pod" system.

Projected Auto Bids are in CAPS.

SOUTH (Memphis)

Greensboro
(1) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (16) RADFORD
(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) South Carolina

Portland
(5) Washington vs. (12) UTAH STATE
(4) Missouri vs. (13) WESTERN KENTUCKY

Miami
(6) UCLA (non-auto) vs. (11) Penn State
(3) Clemson vs. (14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE

Boise
(7) California vs. (10) Tennessee
(2) Kansas vs. (15) VERMONT


WEST (Arizona)

Kansas City
(1) OKLAHOMA vs. (16) CORNELL
(8) UTAH vs. (9) Arizona

Portland
(5) LSU vs. (12) San Diego State
(4) GONZAGA vs. (13) GEORGE MASON

Miami
(6) West Virginia vs. (11) SIENA
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) UT-MARTIN

Kansas City
(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota
(2) MEMPHIS vs. (15) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN


MIDWEST (Indianapolis)

Dayton
(1) PITTSBURGH vs. ALABAMA STATE/ROBERT MORRIS
(8) Boston College vs. (9) Ohio State

Boise
(5) XAVIER vs. (12) St. Mary's
(4) ARIZONA STATE vs. (13) Miami

Minneapolis
(6) Florida State vs. (11) CREIGHTON
(3) Marquette vs. (14) WEBER STATE

Minneapolis
(7) Syracuse vs. (10) Kentucky
(2) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (15) MORGAN STATE


EAST (Boston)

Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) LONG BEACH STATE
(8) BYU vs. (9) Dayton

Philadelphia
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Maryland
(4) Villanova vs. (13) AMERICAN

Greensboro
(6) Illinois vs. (11) DAVIDSON
(3) Duke vs. (14) BUFFALO

Dayton
(7) BUTLER vs. (10) Florida
(2) Louisville vs. (15) JACKSONVILLE


Last Five In:
Penn State
Maryland
San Diego State
St. Mary's
Miami

First Five Out:
UAB
Kansas State
Virginia Tech
Temple
Providence

Next Five Out:
Oklahoma State
New Mexico
Cincinnati
UNLV
Notre Dame
Posted by AlejandroInHouston
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2007
18776 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:49 am to
Why would Purdue be the #4 seed in the South and LSU be the #4 seed in the Midwest?

Just flip those two.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Why would Purdue be the #4 seed in the South and LSU be the #4 seed in the Midwest?



Keep in mind, the regional sites don't matter as much to the tournament selection committee these days. It's the first and second round they want to cut down travel on. I wish they would go back to the old regionals. Who cares if LSU plays Florida in the second round?
Posted by tress4pres
Columbus, OH
Member since Dec 2007
4011 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 11:28 am to
quote:

I agree. They are missing Lighty in a bad way. If Mullens comes back (obviously he will, but I'm still eternally that people are in his ear telling him he's pro material), Diebler continues to improve, and Lauderdale can become even more useful, this team is deadly with no one graduating this year.


Don't forget about Turner and Buford who are their 2 best players IMO. Buford's a true freshman and Ohio Mr. B-ball who will probably be Big 10 freshman of the year. Turner (Soph) was the leading candidate for Big 10 player of the year until about a week ago (2 bad games). I have a feeling that at least 2 of them will go pro...my bet's on Mullens and Turner.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 11:39 am to
quote:

Keep in mind, the regional sites don't matter as much to the tournament selection committee these days. It's the first and second round they want to cut down travel on. I wish they would go back to the old regionals. Who cares if LSU plays Florida in the second round?


That's the most difficult part of doing brackets...ensuring that you have two teams from the same conference on opposite sides of the bracket (not meeting up at least until the Elite 8). This is why there will always be teams shippd out west and visa versa.
Posted by Ron Mexico
AMERICA
Member since Dec 2005
52037 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 11:56 am to
quote:

WEST (Arizona)

Kansas City
(1) OKLAHOMA vs. (16) CORNELL
(8) UTAH vs. (9) Arizona

Portland
(5) LSU vs. (12) San Diego State
(4) GONZAGA vs. (13) GEORGE MASON

Miami
(6) West Virginia vs. (11) SIENA
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) UT-MARTIN

Kansas City
(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota
(2) MEMPHIS vs. (15) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN




i know its very doubtful this shite comes exactly this way

but i would be ECSTATIC with lsu in this draw
Posted by derekinne
Afghanistan
Member since Jan 2009
5895 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 1:29 pm to
I like your first round game, Texas-Florida. Very intruiging to say the least.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 1:40 pm to
Lunardi's latest effort is just downright pathetic.

LINK

quote:

Editor's Note: The bracket projections to the left represent a mock exercise conducted by the NCAA and ESPN through Saturday's games and with random conference tournament scenarios provided by the NCAA. The rundown below represents Joe Lunardi's actual evaluations through games on Sunday.


LSU as an 8 is preposterous. Florida State as a 4 is preposterous. RANDOM conference tournament scenarios? Are you kidding? UNLV in as an 8 seed? Georgetown in period? Much less as a 9?

This guy and their exercise are a sham. He'd have been better off with his own projections. They are at least somewhat realistic.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 4:15 pm to
The committee could totally shock us all and put in Gtown and make Tennessee a 6-8. Meanwhile, I could see them putting us in as an 8 or 9. They have an agenda. Just don't know what it is.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 4:16 pm to
From my post in another thread:

It goes beyond LSU's seeding. So many things are wrong. To randomly project a conference tournament is absurd and shows the lack of knowledge roaming around the ESPN campus. They put so much faith in numbers and processes that common sense goes by the wayside.

Common sense tells you Georgetown and Notre Dame (less so than G'Town) need a miracle to get in the dance.

LSU getting shipped west doesn't shock me. Matter of fact, my predictions had us as a 5 in the West region, and playing opening-round games in Portland. It happens. Whatever.

Niagara getting the auto bid in the MAAC is a possibility (over Siena), but as an 11 seed? I think not. Siena could theoretically be an 11, but not Niagara.

G'Town in period is a joke, but as a 9 is a laugher. Even more funny? The projection has them winning the Big East tourney. ESPN sucks off the ACC and Big East to no end, and this is an example. At this rate, G'Town has to play on Tuesday in the Big East tourney and will have to win FIVE straight to get the bid. I know we've seen 4 (Syracuse), but this would be a stretch.

UNLV as high as 8 is also ridiculous. By the way, the auto bids are in caps and if you look carefully you see (11) MINNESOTA. If the Gophers win the Big Ten tourney, no way they are seeded as low as 11.

Kentucky as a 7? Sorry, but no. Especially if LSU beats them.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 10:58 pm to
Pisces and Co.,

I'm writing to inform you that Georgetown's NCAA hopes finally passed away after a long battle with suckiness. We can all finally stop talking about them. Hopefully they will drag Notre Dame into the grave with them as I'm tired of hearing about the Big East that isn't as good as everyone seems to think.

That is all,
BT
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/23/09 at 11:01 pm to
Yup. They're histy!

I'll update again tomorrow night...Kansas can def get on the 2 seed cloud now.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 5:49 pm to
Going to the game in a bit. When I get back, I will update my projections. I am hoping I can keep us at the 4 projection. This is a must win for that to occur.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 6:03 pm to
Going as well...gonna have my phone keeping me updated all night.
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 10:56 pm to
First of all,

Awesome atmosphere in the PMAC tonight. Share of the SEC title (but don't tell the rant we still need one more win to get it outright).

Some interesting stuff on a fairly light night of college hoops.

Obviously, Pitt getting hammered at Providence. Providence is back in the field of 65, as this was the quality win they so desperately needed to boost their résumé. Pitt is still a number one, but not the overall number one.

Ohio State held serve at home and kept the bubble at bay while Penn State is likely back on it. I would still project the Nittany Lions as a tourney team right now.

Boston College also got a badly-needed win at home against a ranked team in Florida State. That secures their spot for now.

Texas A&M got a win at Nebraska and is slowly creeping up the watch list. If the teams on the bubble continue to slip, and the Aggies get hot, they (along with Oklahoma State) could be in the mix come the Big 12 tournament.

Another one in progress is big in the Mountain West with San Diego State hosting BYU. A BYU win puts SDSU out of my projection, but SDSU and BYU would still be in if the Aztecs come out on top.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 11:01 pm to
I was at the game, not even wanting to check my Blackberry. Little did I know, Providence was on their way to upsetting, what I feel, is the best team in the country. Congrats, Fryars. You're in.

BC with a much needed home win over a very underrated FSU, to get them some breathing room.

I have to think that A&M is now my last team in...big win tonight in Huskerville. They have 20 wins and enough qw's to get in the dance, IMO. They need one more good win, somewhere, to get in there.

Right now, UNLV is NOT in. Keep in mind, I have SDSU asw my auto bid, so many projectors will have the Rebs in. Not I. I also have to get rid of KSU...AGAIN. I'm just gonna have to give A&M the edge right now, despite a lesser record in Big XII play.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 11:05 pm to
quote:

I would still project the Nittany Lions as a tourney team right now.


I don'yt think there's room for them and the Gophers, too. I have Minn in right now, due to some better OOC winning. You could almost draw straws there.

quote:

Another one in progress is big in the Mountain West with San Diego State hosting BYU. A BYU win puts SDSU out of my projection, but SDSU and BYU would still be in if the Aztecs come out on top.


I'm keepin myh eye on that one. The Aztecs need to make me look what I am talking about, If the beat BYU, they could get some serious at-large talk.

And yes....what a great atmosphere in the PMAC!!!!
Posted by BraveTiger225
Atlanta, GA
Member since May 2008
17662 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 11:24 pm to
Jimmer Fredette tied his season high with 28 points and BYU came back to win by 10. The Coogs are a lock and SDSU is out, barring the auto bid.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 2/24/09 at 11:27 pm to
Yep...just saw that. Well...I gotta stand by my original prediction.
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