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1
Posted on 2/27/14 at 11:43 am to Iowa Golfer
So March settles below $5, with April trading at $4.50... after five-year highs seen just a week ago at $6+. All of that, yet UNG only drops $2.50 off its high a week ago. What am I missing? Is this people trading the fund around an expectation, not its actual holdings?
This post was edited on 2/27/14 at 11:44 am
Posted on 2/27/14 at 1:56 pm to sneakytiger
Just picked up DGAZ @ $3.70. This stock should be at $10 within a couple months.
Posted on 2/27/14 at 9:53 pm to jlu03
They bought high, and sold low to oversimplify. Maybe look at USL, or another 12 mos fund.
This post was edited on 2/27/14 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 2/28/14 at 9:28 am to Iowa Golfer
I reversed this morning and bought UGAZ due to the ice storm predictions in the Midwest. I wish I had done it yesterday afternoon. I'll probably switch back on Monday.
Posted on 2/28/14 at 9:41 am to Iowa Golfer
To answer my own question:
Posted on 2/28/14 at 5:23 pm to sneakytiger
UNG isn't done rolling yet, and one purpose of the swaps they own is to even things out a bit. There are usually a couple days every month the price of UNG is counter to the price of spot and the contracts. Spot is trading below April contracts currently.
Anyway, I took the opportunity presented today, and averaged down further on July 20/23 puts. I bought back the other side of the spread at a small profit some time ago. My reasoning is I don't want the spread limiting profit when and if things go south on natty gas.
Anyway, I took the opportunity presented today, and averaged down further on July 20/23 puts. I bought back the other side of the spread at a small profit some time ago. My reasoning is I don't want the spread limiting profit when and if things go south on natty gas.
Posted on 3/1/14 at 10:29 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
UNG isn't done rolling yet
What do you mean, they will continue to purchase Apr contracts? I see they have a lot of cash on hand... it'd be really interesting to see a historical day-by-day record of the their holdings and compare with their current portfolio.
Posted on 3/1/14 at 6:56 pm to sneakytiger
They have a pending NYMEX trade. The price keeps going up every day. The same place you got their projected roll dates, you can see their daily holdings. It's not at 4.51 anymore.
Pending Trades
as of 02/28/2014, subject to change
Shares Created/Redeemed 700,000
Security Action Quantity Price
NYMEX Natural Gas NG APR14 Buy 387 4.609
Pending Trades
as of 02/28/2014, subject to change
Shares Created/Redeemed 700,000
Security Action Quantity Price
NYMEX Natural Gas NG APR14 Buy 387 4.609
This post was edited on 3/1/14 at 6:58 pm
Posted on 3/4/14 at 7:55 pm to Iowa Golfer
UNG is selling 1605 NYMEX April contracts.
Anyway, I tried to load up more on the short side.
I'm short July UNG 20 & 23. Anyone else have a target price for UNG? It's really insane, July 20 puts are selling for under .25.
I read today an argument for ongoing higher natural gas prices, but I just cannot imagine that given the supply fundamentals coming online this spring.
Anyway, I tried to load up more on the short side.
I'm short July UNG 20 & 23. Anyone else have a target price for UNG? It's really insane, July 20 puts are selling for under .25.
I read today an argument for ongoing higher natural gas prices, but I just cannot imagine that given the supply fundamentals coming online this spring.
Posted on 3/4/14 at 8:58 pm to Iowa Golfer
Into some $25 July puts for about $1.60. I'm no options modeler, but that seemed like a great price.
Posted on 3/4/14 at 9:17 pm to sneakytiger
I think we're winners on July puts. I'm going to start buying deeper out of the money puts. Probably no lower than 19.
Posted on 3/4/14 at 11:24 pm to Iowa Golfer
I was looking at the 20's last week because they're so damn cheap.
Posted on 3/5/14 at 6:12 am to sneakytiger
I think $20 is fine based on where the historical price of UNG settles are certain natty gas price points.
I think natty gas heads down your puts are fine, but maybe I'm cheap. It's hard for me to pass by $20/$23 at .23 & .82. That's a lot of leverage for not much premium.
I think natty gas heads down your puts are fine, but maybe I'm cheap. It's hard for me to pass by $20/$23 at .23 & .82. That's a lot of leverage for not much premium.
Posted on 3/5/14 at 11:26 am to Iowa Golfer
Injection season can't get here soon enough. I think once we see the first monster storage build the market will snap out of it and we'll see capitulation.
Posted on 3/5/14 at 9:10 pm to sneakytiger
quote:
Injection season can't get here soon enough. I think once we see the first monster storage build the market will snap out of it and we'll see capitulation.
When it goes down, UNG will go down even quicker. I'll make a friendly wager on that. BOIL, which is predictable I guess, will drop so quickly it should really be entertaining. Especialy entertaining to you and I.
Posted on 3/6/14 at 4:59 pm to Iowa Golfer
With the so called bottom forming on Natty Gas, is this a good time to pick up DGAZ??
Posted on 3/6/14 at 5:11 pm to jlu03
quote:
With the so called bottom forming on Natty Gas, is this a good time to pick up DGAZ??
Some on here are high on DGAZ. Not the way I short things, I'm a buyer of puts instead.
Posted on 3/6/14 at 8:06 pm to Iowa Golfer
Boil is gonna have some 10 dollar day swings for sure. Which means kold gonna have the same.
This post was edited on 3/6/14 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 3/10/14 at 5:12 pm to L S Usetheforce
LINK
COT report is interesting. I cost averaged down my UNG July puts today. July 24 UNG Put were going for about a buck today.
This seems so simple I keep thinking I have to be missing something obvious.
COT report is interesting. I cost averaged down my UNG July puts today. July 24 UNG Put were going for about a buck today.
This seems so simple I keep thinking I have to be missing something obvious.
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