Predict the spreads on a neutral field

There is the playoff committee and there is Vegas. Heck, they ought to let Vegas pick the teams, Vegas point spreads are not so much concerned with where teams are in polls, but rather who would win if they played. The only caveat being Vegas spreads can also reflect fan biases to even out the betting on both sides.

LSU - Ohio State. I think Vegas would have Ohio State a slight favorite over LSU, maybe 2 points. Ohio State is seen as more balanced on offense and defense than LSU

LSU - Georgia. This is one spread we will know soon enough. I think LSU would be 2 to 3 point favorite.

LSU - Clemson. With their weak schedule, there is the thought out there that Clemson is over rated. I think Vegas would have LSU a slight, 2 to 3 point favorite.

LSU - Alabama. Alabama has built up huge equity with Vegas. Even after LSU beat Bama, Vegas still might see that as an outlier win. With Tua I think Bama would be 3 point favorite over LSU on a neutral field. Without Tua, I think Vegas would have this game close to even.


If LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama win out, it’s a good chance that is the final four. Bama would be the only question mark.

For all the gnashing of teeth by some LSU fans over whether LSU or Ohio State gets the first seed, it’s worth noting the first seed would play Bama in the semifinals, assuming Bama goes in as fourth seed.

In that scenario I would rather be the 2 seed and play Clemson in the semi final. I think Bama is better than Clemson, maybe not with Tua hurt. But I would still rather play Clemson and let Ohio State and Bama beat each other up in the other semi final.

It could be moot point. If LSU wins out, I think the win over Georgia seals number one ranking.

Finally, a few questions for anyone who knows. The semifinal games are in Glendale and Atlanta. Does anyone know which city gets the one and four seed and which city gets the two and three? Do they determine that after the teams are named? Does geography come into play, that is, if Georgia gets in would they get to go to Atlanta? I have not been able to find out how this works. I want to go to Arizona if we get a semifinal game. Great weather and great golf out there this time of year