Because the winner is determined by total points and not 1st place votes, a tight finish could easily come down to 3rd place votes and/or being left off some ballots.

Last year, despite a relatively easy win for Caleb Williams (544 1st place votes to Max Duggan's 188), there were 153 ballots that did not list Williams at all. Was he really not considered one of the top three candidates by 153 voters? Not likely. There could be any number of reasons for the omission. Duggan was left off 241 ballots. Williams won by a margin of 611 points.

But what about a year where the vote is expected to be quite bit closer, like this year? (Or 2009, when Ingram got only 5 more 1st place votes and beat Toby Gerhart by 28 points.) Ingram was left off an astounding 290 ballots while still eking out a close win. Gerhart was left off 297 ballots - which means that if just 29 (exactly 10%) of the non-Gerhart voters had given him 3rd place votes, he would have won the Heisman!

The point is that if Nix has a sub-standard game this week, either he or Daniels could get the most 1st place votes and easily lose the Heisman.
How many voters out there will omit one of them from their ballot, for whatever reason? Or vote for both, but list one of them as their 3rd choice, resulting in a 2-point spread for that voter?

Longshot, sure. Possible, very, in an anticipated very close race. IF LSU fans could vote, how many would list JD 1st and omit Nix, to help JD? If Oregon fans could vote, how many would list Nix 1st, and leave Daniels off entirely?

In the end, it could be just about the points. Just like, well, a football game.

This post was edited on 11/27/23 at 5:24 pm