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re: Burrow & SEC QBs drop rate vs NFL's - CFB Film Room Debunked

Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:25 am to
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:25 am to
quote:

t, but five and three in the SEC is nothing for LSU football to be excited about. If you don't know that, you don't know LSU football.



This is simply your opinion. Plenty of people are excited about it because a winning season is always something to be excited about. Anyway have a great day.
Posted by WhereOrWere
Member since May 2013
2708 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:47 am to
I didn't get to read through the entire thread... but I will say, CFB Film Room, like some alluded to, is off when it comes to certain types of advanced stats. I cringe every time I see someone reference them simply because of their style of stat-tracking.

I understand drops are arbitrary for the most part, but their numbers are sometimes off in relation to the industry standard (subscription-based services for advanced CFB stats).

I do know that LSU led the SEC in drop rate this year. This is a fact.

Without going into silly details... for anyone that wants to fact check, I'll give you the game and time of LSU's 1st seven drops this season.

LSU-Miami
1st Q 1:16
3rd Q 4:28
3rd Q 3:58

LSU-Auburn
2nd Q 5:01

LSU-La Tech
1st Q 14:58
1st Q 11:56
2nd Q 2:37

Ole Miss had the lowest drop rate in the SEC, followed by Alabama.

Alas, I respect what CFB Film Room is attempting to do by releasing these numbers free to the public. But I cringe when I see people take the raw data as absolutes.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:16 am
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 5:09 am to
quote:

LSU-Miami
1st Q 1:16
3rd Q 4:28
3rd Q 3:58

LSU-Auburn
2nd Q 5:01

LSU-La Tech
1st Q 14:58
1st Q 11:56
2nd Q 2:37


See how simple that is? A list of game times for claims of drops.

But CFB won't (or CAN'T) provide these elementary stats. Big-10 fans have been asking for these simple stats since CFB started their click-bait site...

CFB's answer? Crickets
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 6:58 am
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 7:12 am to
I like How you make a bunch of excuses and then just say “not an excuse” later
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 9:07 am to
quote:

like How you make a bunch of excuses and then just say “not an excuse” later


I don't care whether you like it or not. I'm not affiliated with the school other than being a fan.

You don't know what an excuse is.
Posted by Mayhawman
Somewhere in the middle of SEC West
Member since Dec 2009
10092 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 9:24 am to
quote:

I do know that LSU led the SEC in drop rate this year. This is a fact.

LSU-Miami
1st Q 1:16
3rd Q 4:28
3rd Q 3:58

LSU-Auburn
2nd Q 5:01

LSU-La Tech
1st Q 14:58
1st Q 11:56
2nd Q 2:37
What are your qualifications for a drop ?
quote:

Ole Miss had the lowest drop rate in the SEC, followed by Alabama.
Link? Did you watch every SEC game and have game/time for each drop?
Sounds very believable and love to see your data.
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Link? Did you watch every SEC game and have game/time for each drop?
Sounds very believable and love to see your data.



He pretty clearly indicated that he is using a subscription service. Google it. StatBroadcast was a good one a few years back. Many college programs used it for scouting, etc.
Posted by Mayhawman
Somewhere in the middle of SEC West
Member since Dec 2009
10092 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 10:27 am to
quote:

He pretty clearly indicated that he is using a subscription service.
These provide targets and receptions, not drop data, afaik.
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 10:52 am to
quote:

These provide targets and receptions, not drop data, afaik.

Wrongo Bongo. Some provide drop data. Some don't. You get what you pay for. CFB costs nothing,


Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 10:54 am to
quote:

Without going into silly details... for anyone that wants to fact check, I'll give you the game and time of LSU's 1st seven drops this season.

LSU-Miami
1st Q 1:16
3rd Q 4:28
3rd Q 3:58

LSU-Auburn
2nd Q 5:01

LSU-La Tech
1st Q 14:58
1st Q 11:56
2nd Q 2:37


I just reviewed the Auburn game. One drop is spot on.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 12:02 pm
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 11:19 am to
What do you think excuse means?
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

What do you think excuse means?

Why would O and his supporters need an excuse for a solid top-10 finish? especially when your crew had LSU out of the top-25. Clearly, your crew needs excuses for face-planting on your predictions for LSU in 2018.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:06 pm to
Talkin bout our offense

I predicted 11-2 so you know, faceplant.

This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 12:10 pm
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Talkin bout our offense

I predictes 11-2 so you know, faceplant.


11-2? Got a link to that?
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 12:12 pm
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:14 pm to
LINK

Ok I said 10-2 but I think We should always win the bowl game.

Not all of my predictions panned out but I think Preseason this was pretty solid.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 12:16 pm
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Ok I said 10-2 but I think We should always win the bowl game.

Not all of my predictions panned out but I think Preseason this was pretty solid.

Well done. I stand corrected. I predicted a reasonable chance at a Natty - far better than the 75 to 1 odds. (I have an envelope with 20 LSU-to-win futures tickets to prove it).

I was not all that disappointed in the development of the '18 offense - with the exception of the WR play. I have always believed that was a coaching issue. That should improve greatly in '19.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 12:25 pm
Posted by bencoleman
RIP 7/19
Member since Feb 2009
37887 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

5. Clearly, your crew needs excuses for face-planting on your predictions for LSU in 2018



Facts.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:38 pm to
Fact: I predicted a 10-2 seaon

Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

Fact: I predicted a 10-2 seaon

You did. But the "crew" I refer to are the Nega'Tigers who predicted a flop season. NOT anything near to a top-10 ranked season
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66569 posts
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:53 pm to
That’s not really true.

A lot of people expected better from LSU than going 9-3

I expected Better.

All this “new OC times to change” BS and we lost to Florida who is completely revamping their offense and A&M who is also totally revamping their offense.
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