Recruiting Trends: The effect of one down year

Upfront note: Yeah, everyone knows that the star system is not gospel and that there are always exceptions, but it is overall a good aggregated rating system if you ignore the disparate individual ranking mess-ups....that being said.....

Going back to 2002, according to Rivals ranking and Avg Stars for each class, here is how LSU fared...(of course, 2012 is tbd, but as of now)

Year....rank....avg star.....4-Yr RunningRank
2002.....15.....3.23
2003......1.....3.68
2004......2.....3.54
2005.....22.....3.69..........10.0
2006......7.....3.50..........8.0
2007......4.....3.88..........8.8
2008.....11.....3.58..........11.0
2009......2.....3.79..........6.0
2010......6.....3.59..........5.8
2011......6.....3.64..........6.3
2012......12....3.38..........6.5

History shows that a program can withstand a random "low" ranking from time to time, and 2012 MAY be one of them, and MAY NOT be one of them. Odds at this point are this will be one of the lowest average star ranked teams (3.38 right now) for the time Rivals shows back thru 2002...and I know we have a 2-star deep snapper is in this class, and this is the case for most programs when they sign specialty players of some sort almost every year in every program...

So, before you go and jump off the Mississippi bridge, realize that 2002 was the previous worse class with an average star rating of 3.23, and also note that there were 3 other classes ranked at or below the current 12th ranking (15th, 22nd, 11th) of the 2012 class.

Miles had a bad January 2012, but you better not put money down that this is a sustainable trend, as the record shows he will turn around and get a strong class in 2013 and beyond...

Also, look at the 4-yr running average classes that constitute these "incredibly stacked" LSU teams over the last few years and how constant it has been for a 3-4 year span....It is the overall class that matters at the end of the recruiting day....

just sayin...