Polling

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Is there suddenly a new state in play? Quite possibly — for all the bluster from the Trump camp Saturday evening and into Sunday about this being an “outlier”, it is only in the respect that other polls have been extremely careful to generously sample Republican-leaning constituencies throughout the campaign season. Selzer is sticking to her guns.

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That’s right. If the Selzer poll bears out to any degree tomorrow, we’re in for a decades-defining political backlash to the conservative Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs Wade. What consequences will that have for the presidential race? What about the Senate race in Montana, where GOP candidate Tim Sheehy has called women “indoctrinated” on the issue of abortion rights and dismissively said that it was all younger women wanted to talk about? What about in Texas, where the state’s Cancun-visiting senator and wannabe podcaster Ted Cruz is facing potentially the toughest election night fight of his political career? Or Nebraska, where a Republican incumbent senator has suddenly found herself in danger of being unseated by an independent who says he won’t caucus with either party?

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For days, it has looked like cracks were showing in the coalition that Trump put together in 2016 and tried to reassemble this year. A last-minute swing of three rallies in the state of North Carolina, which he won twice, suggested to many that his internals showed signs of danger there. His campaign no longer seems to be making a serious push for Wisconsin, instead focusing attention on Pennsylvania. Other polls have shown Harris up by several points in Michigan, suggesting that if any candidate is favored to come out ahead, it’s her.

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