Allan Lichtman ended up being 100% right about how Hillary would lose to Trump

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Lichtman, author of “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” is sticking with his prediction of a Trump victory.

If you aren't familiar with his somewhat unique prediction system, here are the basics: The keys to the White House, he says, are a set of 13 true/false statements. If six of them are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency. His system has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every U.S. presidential election since 1984. Our first interview went into the keys more in-depth, and in September he said the keys were settled enough to make an official prediction of a Democratic loss and a Trump win.

The 13 keys are a historically based prediction system that were founded on the study of every presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and I’ve since used them prospectively to predict, often well ahead of time, the results of all eight elections from 1984 to 2012. The keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House. There are 13 keys. An answer of true on these true/false questions always favors the reelection of the party in power. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false, the party in power, the party holding the White House, is the predicted loser — any six or more.

The first time we talked, you weren’t willing to predict a winner. Take me through that process and how you came to predict a Trump win.

Early on, the keys were inconclusive. That is, remember, six or more and the party in power is the predicted loser. And for some time, there were five keys out against the incumbent Democrats.

And since that time, as we discussed last time, that sixth key has turned against the Democrats, and that is the third party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, to get five percent or more of the vote. That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats.

13 Keys

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (Technically TRUE. There was no major scandal during the Obama administration. Favored Hillary)

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

11.Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE- Favored Trump)

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE- Favored Hillary)

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