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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Gustav
Posted on 8/26/08 at 9:57 am to GGASU
Posted on 8/26/08 at 9:57 am to GGASU
quote:
I want the hurricane track to be right on us a week out...they are never anywhere close a week away.
Discounting your use of "never", this was somewhat true several years ago, but the models have become much more accurate. They did a very good job with Fay after it crossed Cuba, and that was one of the trickiest storms in a long time.
If the models were in complete disagreement on Gustav's projected path, you might have a valid point. However, that is not the case here.
2
Posted on 8/26/08 at 10:01 am to Dusty Bottoms
they also track katrina to within 30 miles. granted that was within 3 days though.
Posted on 8/26/08 at 10:12 am to Dusty Bottoms
[/quote]
From national hurricane center
[quote]THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD INTHE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
quote:
If the models were in complete disagreement on Gustav's projected path, you might have a valid point. However, that is not the case here.
From national hurricane center
[quote]THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD INTHE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
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