re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.

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He’s a $20 mil player in his current state imo

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No. He isn't. That would be an overpay for his skillset he currently has, which is an off ball guy without the ability to create off the dribble that shoots great set shot 3's, and plays good defense on the opposing teams PG/SG.

I have no doubt that someone will give him $20M/yr, and it's really not that much of an overpay, but that's not what his going rate should be. If his name was Lonzo anything but Ball, and he was drafted in the 2nd round instead of 2nd overall, he wouldn't be sniffing $20M.

Here's some contract from the draft class before Lonzo:
Jaylen Brown $23M - took a huge step after signing the extension once they started giving him starter minutes. Lots of people thought it was an overpay.
Buddy Hield $22M - regrettable contract. no defense, all he does is shoot 3's.
Jamal Murray - MAX, which i don't agree with
Taurean Prince $12M - 3&D with no offensive game.
Malik Beasley $13M - did nothing first 2 years, given a chance the next two and showed he's a scorer, and shot well from 3.
Caris Levert $16M - great scorer
Dejounte Murray $14M - a legit PG that can defend, score and rebound, not a good 3 point shooter.
Brodgon $19M - score, facilitate, defend
Justise Winslow $13M - was averaging 12/5/4 playing great defense, shooting 38% from 3 for 2 years before he signed his deal in year 4


So tell me where Lonzo fits in with all of those recent contracts and the skillset he offers. Is Lonzo's game more similar to Brown/Murray, or Prince/Winslow? Is he a scorer like LeVert and Beasley?