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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:59 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:59 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Also, I haven't seen anyone mention this, and I doubt it has come up often, but it's worth adding to this thread I think.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 5:00 pm
2
Posted on 9/22/20 at 5:21 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Might wanna recalculate those odds. Going 2 for 2 on consecutive 2 point conversions probly isn’t a 50% proposition. You guys aren’t looking at this situationally, you’re just assuming optimum conditions for what your inclined to favor and worst case scenarios for the contrary. When you’re trailing your objective is to increase opportunity and by betting it all on the immediate you’re cutting those opportunities in half.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 6:18 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Another way to look at it:
If your down 15 in the 4th your facing long odds no matter what - so no set of events makes you ‘likely’ to win.
You have to attempt at least 1 two point conversion.
If you save it for the end, you have to make it (acceptable failure rate = 0).
If you go for it early, the acceptable failure rate is a number higher than 0. It’s not much higher than zero, but it’s not zero. It does mean that your ensuing possession you’re in hurry up mode and wanting to score before the 2 minute warning and still hold onto a time out.
In another quirk, going for it early and missing is your best chance at winning in regulation since there is no playing for the tie at that point.
If your down 15 in the 4th your facing long odds no matter what - so no set of events makes you ‘likely’ to win.
You have to attempt at least 1 two point conversion.
If you save it for the end, you have to make it (acceptable failure rate = 0).
If you go for it early, the acceptable failure rate is a number higher than 0. It’s not much higher than zero, but it’s not zero. It does mean that your ensuing possession you’re in hurry up mode and wanting to score before the 2 minute warning and still hold onto a time out.
In another quirk, going for it early and missing is your best chance at winning in regulation since there is no playing for the tie at that point.
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