re: New Wisconsin trafalgar poll

quote:

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He'll need to win WI, or, MI or MN to have a real shot at this

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He doesn't need those states. If he wins Pennsylvania and Florida, he almost certainly wins. He can even afford an upset in Arizona under this scenario.

If he wins Florida but drops Pennsylvania, he needs to win one of either MI, WI or MN or a combo of NH and NV.

If he wins Pennsylvania but drops Florida, he needs to win two of MI, WI or MN.

If he loses Penn and Florida, he's in big trouble. He would need to win MI, WI, MN and one of either NH or NV or pull a crazy upset somewhere.