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re: Michigan report...Just got back from Michigan vacation...
Posted on 8/1/20 at 8:40 pm to Magician2
Posted on 8/1/20 at 8:40 pm to Magician2
I do generally agree with your sentiment there as the 2016 data bears it out. Many Dems sat out in WI and MI and those states were not heavily contested. PA on the other hand saw high turnout on both sides, with Trump getting several hundred thousand more votes than Romney. So I do feel the best on PA out of PA/MI/WI. I think Trump’s odds in the swing states (best chance to worst chance) are:
FL (80%)
NC (75%)
PA (60%)
WI (50%)
AZ (45%)
MN (40%)
MI (35%)
NV (30%)
NH (30%)
FL (80%)
NC (75%)
PA (60%)
WI (50%)
AZ (45%)
MN (40%)
MI (35%)
NV (30%)
NH (30%)
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 8:43 pm
1
Posted on 8/1/20 at 8:43 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
I do generally agree with your sentiment there as the 2016 data bears it out. Many Dems sat out in WI and MI and those states were not heavily contested. PA on the other hand saw high turnout on both sides, with Trump getting several hundred thousand more votes than Romney. So I do feel the best on PA out of PA/MI/WI. I think Trump’s odds in the swing states (best chance to worst chance) are:
FL
NC
PA
WI
AZ
MN
NH
MI
NV
100% agree with you. PA didn't have anyone sit out. Trump legitamely flipped 300k voters that went for Obama in 2012.
I had a post back in 2017 pointing that out when discussing the 3 rust belt states.
Trump crushed it in PA.
For some reason though polls are suggesting he is favored in WI more than the other 2. Regardless all he needs is just 1 of them and to keep the other.
Obviously Florida being the biggest purple state.
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