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Message
re: Projected 2020-2021 basketball lineup
Posted on 5/15/20 at 12:14 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 5/15/20 at 12:14 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Lol, you are acting like 2pt FGs making up a higher percentage of a teams scoring than FT% is rare.
No, I am showing you on our FTA/FGA rate, our scoring distribution was fairly just OK from the line.
Here's another shocker - a 2 point made shot is worth twice as much as a 1 point made shot. We made 512 FTs in 31 games, which is 16.5 points per game. We made 675 2 point shots in 31 games, which is 43.5 points per game. IT shouldn't shock you to know a significant uptick in the percentage you make from 2 is going to have a bigger affect than a significant uptick in the percentage you make at the line.
Let's take this example:
Auburn was one of the best teams in the country getting to the line. Having 43.8 FTA/FGA, 4th in the country. They made in total the 6th most FTs of any team in the country last year at 551 in 31 games, however they were one of the WORST FT shooting teams in the country at just 67.4%. Let's apply our FT shooting % which was one of the best in the country to their super high FT rate and see what we get, instead of 551 makes, they go up to 629 makes in 881 attempts. So taking one of the highest volume FT teams in the country, and making them go from one of the worst to one of the best teams in FT%, adds them a whopping 78 points in 31 games, or about 2.5 points a game. That's again, taking one of the highest FTA teams in the country from one of the worst to one of the best FT% teams.
Compare that with taking a decent volume 2 point team from one of the worst, to one of the best 2 point FG teams in the country:
Pittsburgh shot an abysmal 45.5% from 2 point range last season (among worst in country), but took 1,275 2 pointers in 33 games (38.6/game), not that terribly far off from our 1,235 in 31 games (39.8/game). Pittsburgh made 580 of their 1,275 2's at the 45.5%. Give them our 54.7% from 2, and now are making 697 2's. That's 234 more points on the season, or SEVEN more points per game.
2.5 points per game added taking one of the highest volume FT shooting team from one of worst to one of best FT% teams in the country
vs.
7 points per game added taking a decently high volume 2 point shooting team from one of the worst to one of the best 2pt% teams in the country
So yeah, maybe now you understand why the 2 point offense was the much bigger contributor than the FT shooting was. The expected points added shooting much higher from 2 than from the line, again on higher volume from 2 than the line adds way more points.
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