re: Coronavirus has now killed more Americans in 1 month than flu killed in entire year

quote:

---

I'm telling you point blank: the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

---

I never said otherwise. And the IHME model, which is modeled around deaths first, and then derived its estimates of hospitalizations from that (with some additional input of hospitalization data after the initial fit) overestimated hospitalizations due to some misspecifications of the death to hospitalization relationship, as relationship varies both as a function of proximity in time (more early on, before people really start dying) and severity (places where it was more severe had more people dying per hospitalization).

quote:

---

Which is the reason given for destroying our economy

---

It was actually to prevent deaths (and any other adverse outcome), and part of that was because the fatality rate would die as hospitalized became overwhelmed. But if the opposites was true (fatality rate decrease as hospitals became overwhelmed) then we would have been happy to let hospitals to become overwhelmed.

Regardless, I don’t understand your logic. If a major purpose for the mitigation actions was to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, and then hospitals end up not becoming overwhelmed (or even less whelmed), then wasn’t that the point?

In other words, wouldn’t have been a greater indictment on the actions if hospitals ended up becoming more overwhelmed?