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re: The U. of Washington's model was updated overnight
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:42 am to anc
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:42 am to anc
quote:This is completely false.
For you non-data geeks, keep in mind that THIS IS THE MODEL THAT WAS PRESENTED L:AST WEEK THAT 240,000 WOULD DIE.
It originally predicted about 84,000 deaths then rose to 94,000 deaths and is now back near its original prediction. It’s been referenced in a number of articles as a counter to the 100,000 to 240,000 projections.
240,000 U.S. Virus Deaths Don't Have to Happen
quote:
This model, which assumes much more rigorous lockdown measures will be broadly implemented soon, predicts a mean death toll of around 94,000. But it also carries a warning: Its latest projection, while lower than the others, has climbed 10,000 since its initial release last week.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 9:43 am
Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:59 am to buckeye_vol
Yeah, this model was never projecting 240,000 deaths, they were projecting 94k. So good news but also fake news
Posted on 4/6/20 at 3:16 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
quote:
For you non-data geeks, keep in mind that THIS IS THE MODEL THAT WAS PRESENTED L:AST WEEK THAT 240,000 WOULD DIE.
This is completely false.
It originally predicted about 84,000 deaths then rose to 94,000 deaths and is now back near its original prediction. It’s been referenced in a number of articles as a counter to the 100,000 to 240,000 projections.
240,000 U.S. Virus Deaths Don't Have to Happen
quote:
This model, which assumes much more rigorous lockdown measures will be broadly implemented soon, predicts a mean death toll of around 94,000. But it also carries a warning: Its latest projection, while lower than the others, has climbed 10,000 since its initial release last week.
Any idea where Birx and Fauci got that 240,000 number? I keep looking through this model data from as far back as 3/30 and I can't find it, I don't see anything further back than that. Birx said the administrations models show 100,000 to 200,000 if we do everything perfectly the day this model was showing 84,000 projected with a high value of 140,000.
This of course was the day after Trump extended the social distancing guidelines to 4/30. I assume the 200,000+ numbers are used to advise the president but even 4/1-4/2 revisions to the posted model which increased to 94,000 projected with a high value of 177,000 their number jumped to 240,000! Where did those numbers come from?
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