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Posted on 3/20/20 at 4:17 am to supadave3
Death rates are going to be a severely lagging indicator, as the testing rates go up.
Why? The average infection time to death is about 20 days-- so the numbers of dead you see now, are an indicator of infections 20 days ago, on average.
Yes, as testing expands, you'll see a temporary gap open as we get a better idea of the actual rate of infections-- this is when you'll see the mortality rate go down; more cases identified earlier in the window of infection. The deaths come later, though.
Why? The average infection time to death is about 20 days-- so the numbers of dead you see now, are an indicator of infections 20 days ago, on average.
Yes, as testing expands, you'll see a temporary gap open as we get a better idea of the actual rate of infections-- this is when you'll see the mortality rate go down; more cases identified earlier in the window of infection. The deaths come later, though.
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