re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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That is an interesting read indeed. But it still doesn't explain why they were so much more fearful of this virus than the flu.

I often wonder if this board actually understands that it's possible to have a virus/plague/etc. that is worth doing what has actually been done this time. I'm guessing that what has amounted to crying wolf will only make it worse when it actually does come.

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I think it does. The number of Chinese people in poverty is almost three times the total US population. Initial data, I believe, had a hospitalization rate of 20% of those infected. But even taking current hospitalization rates in the US as an assumption (4.9%) and a 25% prevalence (225 million people), the Chinese government would have been expecting twice as many people in poverty being hospitalized than China has hospital beds as a country. And that's just taking into account those below China's poverty line. Guaranteed that those beds would first go to government officials, their families, the business leaders, and the 300 million person "middle class." That's a recipe for unrest, if I've ever heard.

Now imagine that China's initial assumption was that the hospitalization rate was going to be four times worse. China's government maintains power because it is selling its ability to handle crises and continue to generate wealth for China. Having people dying in the streets of giant cities doesn't fit the brand.