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re: BB Preview: LSU @ Auburn; Sat 2/8; 11:00 AM CST; ESPN

Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:02 pm to
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28566 posts
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Where Auburn has a clear advantage over us is inside with the 6’11 Wiley.


Wiley is averaging less than 10 ppg and playing only 20 mpg. His big contribution is rebounding moreso than anything else. Plus, big size hasn't hurt LSU this season (ex: USC's bigs, Perry at MSU, Blackshear at Fla).

Auburn is a lot like LSU in that their efficiency ratings don't really match up with their w/l records. Even before the Vandy debacle, LSU was ranked in the Kenpom 30's despite being 17-4. Auburn is current #29, far and away the worst ranking of any power conf. team with 3 or fewer losses. What that leads you to believe is that Auburn and LSU may be worse than their records suggest.

LSU is the better offensive team. The difference is (and this should come as no surprise) that Auburn is a MUCH better defensive team than LSU, but not necessarily "elite" relative to the rest of the country.

AU is a lot like LSU in that they have a lot of long, athletic guys in the 6'4 to 6'7 range. This isn't the AU teams of the last 2 years who could just barrage you with threes. But as we've seen, LSU is horrible when it comes to defending the three and even average shooting teams can have big games from deep

I'm interested to see how Wade adjusts (if he adjusts). I can't imagine he really thinks the Vandy game was just an abberration and that the same defensive approach will work tomorrow. While not the complete uptempo team of last year, this AU team is athletic enough to play in that style of game. So I wonder if Wade will tone down the pressure/tempo knowing that LSU doesn't clearly out-athlete AU. I understood the approach of hoping LSU's athleticism would eventually wear down Vandy. That won't be the case tomorrow. One thing LSU has improved on from last year is they seem to be much more efficient in the half-court on offense. Maybe the approach is to slow things down to prevent AU from getting easy buckets in transition/early in the clock, thereby limiting the TOTAL shots per game and trusting that your advantage in FG% will pull you through? That's not necessarily LSU's style, but the mathcup may dictate a somewhat different approach to mitigate LSU's weakness (poor defense)

Bottom line. The Vandy loss absolutely sucked. But a win tomorrow would maybe mitigate that loss altogether. Because this game is on the road, a win tomorrow would very likely be LSU's best win of the season...regardless of how the season finishes out. ROAD wins are like gold come selection Sunday. And there isn't a bigger one left on the schedule. If the meltdown at Vandy is the direct cause of a win tomorrow, then in many respects what happen Wed. would be worth it.
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