re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

NY is probably the best statewide dataset at this point (lots of testing with a high number of cases with full reporting). They are showing around a 10% hospitalization rate with a case fatality rate at 0.7%.

There are two competing issues on the case fatality rate. On the one hand, fatalities will lag cases by at least a week. When you consider that cases are doubling every 5-7 days, that means that the true CFR might be double the current raw case fatality rate.

On the other hand with our limited testing there are likely many more cases than we thought. NY is testing more than anyone in the US, so they probably have a decent handle on the denominator... at least within the ballpark.

It appears that NY also has most of its cases in the lower risk category (under 70) so that helps the fatality numbers.