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re: Severe Weather Moving East Today
Posted on 1/7/20 at 2:35 pm to Klingler7
Posted on 1/7/20 at 2:35 pm to Klingler7
So far this January (6 days) : Baton Rouge average temperature is + 4.0 F above normal and New Orleans mean temperature is +6.9 F above normal .
Above normal temperatures expected in Baton Rouge thru at least the 13th of January.
I would expect a moderate cool down to occur in later January to offset these above average temps. It’s rare to see a winter month with +6-9 F above normal for whole month. The upper level pattern will inevitably shift withl colder air building up in Canada and pushing south when ridging shifts to eastern pacific states.
Above normal temperatures expected in Baton Rouge thru at least the 13th of January.
I would expect a moderate cool down to occur in later January to offset these above average temps. It’s rare to see a winter month with +6-9 F above normal for whole month. The upper level pattern will inevitably shift withl colder air building up in Canada and pushing south when ridging shifts to eastern pacific states.
This post was edited on 1/7/20 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 1/7/20 at 10:00 pm to Klingler7
This just seems serious. Still a few days out and confidence is still high.
From the SPC:
From the SPC:
quote:
A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast toward central AR by 12z Saturday. Ahead of the low, rich Gulf moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. While some questions remain over how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday. Mixed convective modes are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes, especially from east TX through central MS/AL.
Posted on 1/9/20 at 4:58 pm to Klingler7
quote:
So far this January (6 days) : Baton Rouge average temperature is + 4.0 F above normal and New Orleans mean temperature is +6.9 F above normal .
Above normal temperatures expected in Baton Rouge thru at least the 13th of January.
Wasn't Jan 2019 warmer than normal, as well?
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