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re: Tennis 2020 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread
Posted on 12/13/19 at 2:51 pm to MidnightVibe
Posted on 12/13/19 at 2:51 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
Would shots per point not be a way better proxy?
I would think so, but I wouldn't expect it to be any better than the CPI that's already out there. You could have 2 tourneys at the same complex in back to back weeks and have massively different numbers for shots per point based on the type of players in the field. Of course you would adjust for servebots and extreme pushers, but how much work would that take? And how do you quantify how much each player changes their playing style on surfaces with different speeds?
2
Posted on 12/13/19 at 3:19 pm to bayoucracka
Imagine trying to create a rating system that could beat the betting markets. What type of factors would you have to consider besides skill level? Well, just off the top of my head...
1. Current form
2. Surface
3. Court speed
4. Weather
5. Fatigue
6. Accumulated fatigue
7. Head to head
8. Motivation
9. Injuries
10. Record vs. certain player types
It would be very difficult to quantify any of these things, let alone all of them... for each individual match.
You might be better off using Elo ratings in a reverse sort of way compared to betting odds. For example, if Elo says Thiem should beat Nishikori 60% of the time, but the money line (-300) is implying that Thiem wins 75% of the time, maybe Thiem would be the play. We could surmise that oddsmakers and/or bettors are seeing a big difference in the other factors not related to skill level, and we could/should trust in the wisdom of crowds.
I haven't tried this, but it seems like a decent idea. I might give it a shot when they start back up next month.
1. Current form
2. Surface
3. Court speed
4. Weather
5. Fatigue
6. Accumulated fatigue
7. Head to head
8. Motivation
9. Injuries
10. Record vs. certain player types
It would be very difficult to quantify any of these things, let alone all of them... for each individual match.
You might be better off using Elo ratings in a reverse sort of way compared to betting odds. For example, if Elo says Thiem should beat Nishikori 60% of the time, but the money line (-300) is implying that Thiem wins 75% of the time, maybe Thiem would be the play. We could surmise that oddsmakers and/or bettors are seeing a big difference in the other factors not related to skill level, and we could/should trust in the wisdom of crowds.
I haven't tried this, but it seems like a decent idea. I might give it a shot when they start back up next month.
This post was edited on 12/13/19 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 12/16/19 at 2:49 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
You could have 2 tourneys at the same complex in back to back weeks and have massively different numbers for shots per point based on the type of players in the field. Of course you would adjust for servebots and extreme pushers, but how much work would that take
You would have to adjust it. It would essentially be on a per-player basis. Very doable, but would take me a long long time.
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