re: Memphis-54 vs SMU-48 Final

quote:

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If you make it you're down 6 and in position to win the game instead of tie

If you miss it you're down 8 and you still have the opportunity to tie if you get the next 2.

If you run the conditional probabilities you win the game more often by the 2 point strategy.

The goal is to win the game, not force overtime. Forcing OT is a loss as often as a win and playing to force overtime strategy is playing to lose 50% of the time.

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To make matters worse, people act like kicking the PAT twice is a guarantee. The reality is you'll miss one of them about 8% of the time, on average. A team like SMU is likely to miss one over 30% of the time.