re: So who will win the Heisman?

Since OU made the playoffs Murray will likely win.

Since the BCS era, and continuing into the CFP era, there has been a huge trend to always give the Heisman to a team either going to the championship game or the playoffs.

Obviously the best teams are often times going to have the best players, so it's sometimes a legtimate winner, but it's a phenomenon that has gotten stronger.

Look at Heisman winners prior to 1998 and you'll find that non-championship teams have a great many Heisman.

Now look at what happened a few years after the BCS started. By the mid 2000's the Heisman winner is almost always a team going to the BCS championship or the playoffs.

It's a very real phenomenon. Alabama has actually benefited from it since we contend for the national championship regularly. I don't think either of our Heisman winners would have even come close to winning it had we not contended.

The Heisman has always been equal parts awesome and complete sham.

Tua peaked too soon. Coming off of last season's drama all eyes were on him and for like 2-3 months it was Tua mania and people eventually just get bored of things like that. The media has been pumping up Murray big time the past few weeks, even as Tua was playing spectacular against tough opopnents. The legit bad game Tua had the final week is just enough to put Murray over the top. Voters weigh the final few weeks more heavily than the "old news" from a few months ago, recency bias and what not. You can argue that's a good thing or not, depends on how you see it.

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Tua peaked too soon.

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No, he just had his worst game at the worst possible time.

Had Tua had a normal Tua game in the process of Bama hanging 50 on UGA, Tua would be the odds-on favorite. It's that arbitrary.

It's actually really quite silly. I don't follow it, and I already regret having even typed this post on the subject.