re: Russia and Ukraine Exchanging Fire in Kerch Strait

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Link to this theory, not saying that the ship didn't show up in Odessa, but that didn't cause Russia to halt its offensive.

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From 28th September to 7th October 2018, ships from Standing Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) participated in the Turkish led exercise Mavi Balina 2018. Mavi Balina 2018 is a bi annual anti-submarine warfare exercise hosted by the Turkish Navy off the coast of Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean designed to increase readiness and interoperability across the participating units. Turkish Navy hosted Mavi Balina 2018 was executed as a serialized exercise in order to, sharpen the ASW/ASUW skills of the participating submarines, provide ASW training at unit and surface task group level and practice the tactics applicable in real world operations. Consisting of flagship, the Royal Netherlands Navy frigate HNLMS De Ruyter, Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ville De Quebec and Spanish Navy frigate ESPS Cristobal Colon, SNMG2 joined ships, submarines and air assets from Turkish, Pakistan, Romania and US navies.

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LINK

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Underscoring the current crisis, on Sept. 23 two Ukrainian navy vessels effectively ran Russia’s de facto blockade of the Sea of Azov. On Sept. 20, the two Ukrainian naval vessels, the Donbas and the Korets, left the port of Odesa on the Black Sea. (Both ships were seized by Russian forces during the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea. The Kremlin later returned the ships to Ukraine.) On Sept. 23, Russian vessels escorted the Ukrainian ships “under complicated circumstances” as they passed through the strait, Ukraine’s navy reported.

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LINK

Ok I was mistaken. There was an increased NATO naval presence in the Aegean sea and the eastern MediterraneanSea. It is just a theory, but I find it hard to believe that it was just a coincidence that Russia let 2 Ukrainian naval boats pass through the straits when there was an increased NATO naval presence close enough to respond, but they attacked the Ukrainian boats when the increased NATO presence was not there.